NFC South Preview

Ready for more? The NFC South contains the reigning NFL champion New Orleans Saints. It also has a solid Atlanta Falcons team most are predicting to advance to the playoffs after posting winning seasons the last two years. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are clearly going through a rebuilding process after winning only three games last year while handing the reigns over to a rookie quarterback midway through the season. The Carolina Panthers are the biggest question mark, being one of the youngest teams in football. However, they're only two season removed from a 12-win season.

Division Winner: New Orleans Saints

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt; they did just win the Superbowl. They're clearly now the team to beat, but quarterback Drew Brees is clearly up to the challenge. Last year he threw the highest completion percentage in league history. The year before that he threw for the second most yards in NFL history. New Orleans will stay competitive so long as Brees is healthy (which unfortunately has been an issue earlier in his career). The Saints defense is not even close to the unit the offense puts on the field, but they make plays. Although New Orleans gives up a lot of yards, they also manage a lot of turnovers. And with Brees leading the offense and scoring about thirty points a game, the defense doesn't exactly have to be great. I think eleven wins is fair.

Division Runner-Up: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons starting quarterback and running back were both injured for multiple games last season, and they still managed a winning season in a tough conference. Assuming they stay healthy this year, they should make it back to playoffs under the strength of third year quarterback Matt Ryan. This team has done as well in free agency as just about anyone, adding future Hall of Fame tight end Anthony Gonzalez and starting running back Michael Turner. The Falcons however are mostly not a team of superstars, but a solid group that play their roles and are simply well coached. They shouldn't have to struggle for ten wins a wildcard, and could easily push the Saints for the division's top spot.

Division Third Place: Carolina Panthers

Obviously this preview looks a lot like how the division ended up last year. But it just doesn't seem likely for an other outcome, except a flip flop of the top two. Carolina is in the weirdest kind of rebuilding mode with the youngest imaginable trio of quarterbacks and a head coach entering the final year of his contract with no extension talks in sight. The team publicly committed to quarterback Matt Moore, then drafted two high profile QBs. So it seems unlikely for the Panthers to make a push at the division this year, although their excellent running back stable and above average defense should keep them well ahead of Tampa Bay. I expect six or seven wins, and a new head coach in 2011.

Division Basement: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In the NFC South there's a strange phenomenon of the last place team from one year winning the division the following year. I for one would be completely shocked if this trend repeated itself in 2010. Although Tampa Bay is making positive strides, the franchise is obviously in a lengthy rebuilding phase, having changed head coaches and starting quarterbacks last year while getting rid of older veteran players - even those that were still producing. While I wouldn't be surprised if this was a formidable team within a few years, for no reason should this be big year for the Bucs. However, I think they can improve from three wins to probably five.

Sean Payton vs. Jerry Jones

First off, I apologize for a serious 'Stache absence of late from the blog. Truth is, not much has really happened of interest. There's always something going on in the NFL, but this time of year it's all combine workouts and restricted free agent tenders. If you don't know what these things are, I assure you it's just as unexciting as it sounds. I do promise some Ochocinco stories coming soon.

I did come across this hilarious item via Peter King of Sports Illustrated. With all the NFL coaches and general managers in Indianapolis for the scouting combine, all the high priced restaurants are quite busy. And thus Saints coach Sean Payton and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones had both made reservations at St. Elmo's Steakhouse on consecutive nights.

Apparently Jones also made a reservation for a particular expensive-sounding bottle of wine, Caymus Special Selection cabarnet sauvignon. So when Payton sits for his meal the night before Jone's reservation and asks for the same bottle of wine, the wait-staff informs him that their only remaining bottle is reserved.

You'd think the story would end here. Who would give away a bottle reserved by a billionaire? Well, apparently Sean Payton is a very persuasive man. He not only convinced the restaurant to give him the bottle, but he convinced them to present the empty bottle to Jones the next night with a special message:

WHO DAT!

World Champions XLIV

Sean Payton

ha!

Yeah, I'll be much happier when the offseason is over too.

2011 NFL Gambling Guide

What is the steal of the 2010 Gambling season?

Bodog Sports, a Vegas sports gambling outlet, is giving the Cincinnati Bengals 30/1 odds of winning the next Superbowl!  Can you even imagine the payoff when the Bengals cross the NFL finish line in first place.  Guys, you could turn $100 into $3,000 or $100,000 into $3,000,000.

Take it from me, and my surprisingly slightly-more-than-half right 2009 NFL predictions.  Let's review!

First I picked the playoff teams for the AFC teams.  And oh boy did I nail four of the six playoff teams!  I missed the Colts as the top seed - I thought the loss of Tony Dungy and some of the rest of their coaching staff might actually disrupt the continuity Peyton Manning has enjoyed since coming into the league.  My theory finally paid off when the Colts lost the Superbowl . . .

I thought the Titans would would have a great in place of the Colts.  And they did, but only after losing the first 6 games and replacing their starting quarterback.  I feel I should get a mulligan on that one.  Same with the Texans, one of my wildcard picks, who came damn to close to the post season.  They posted the same record as the 5th seed Ravens and 6th seed Jets, but lost in tiebreakers.

So let's talk about the Ravens.  I totally had both them and the Bengals in postseason, but I flip-flopped the division winner and wildcard team.  Being only a game off, I feel pretty justified here.

Lastly, I had the Chargers and Patriots winning their divisions.  Like everyone else.

I did nearly as well in the NFC playoff predictions.  The Vikings unsurprisingly cruised to a second straight division title.  I expected the Bears to best the Packers for a wildcard spot, but I failed to realize how poor Chicago's coaches were.  And now they're mostly fired.

I picked the Eagles for a much better season than they had, but the did make the playoffs.  I'm still not sure how the Cowboys managed to be a playoff team and beat Philadelphia three times in one season.

Elsewhere I picked the 49ers and Panthers for big seasons.  Although neither did horrendously, they did miss the playoffs.  At least San Francisco kept the NFC-West interesting.

Most happily of all though, I had the Saints making the playoffs and going on a long postseason run from the beginning.  Geaux Saints!

So take it from me gambling aficionados.  A guy who's right 58% of the time

Geaux Saints

So Superbowl coverage has been non-stop for two weeks now. Every injury, one-on-one matchup and gambling topic has been talked into the ground. Every analyst has already picked their winner (usually the Colts) and practically every star player has given their two cents on air. And the afternoon of the big game I'm writing Dank Game's first Superbowl post.

Welcome outlandish predictions: Carson Palmer once suggested that someone would eventually die on a pro football field. Well, it's going happen tonight. My best guess is Colts running back Joseph Addai.

I definitely think a drunken fan will find a way to run on the field (someone did at the NCAA championship bowl game this year). Saints quarterback Drew Brees will manage to hit him or her for a 70 yard gain.

A record 48 points will be scored in the first quarter, including TDs on 4 consecutive plays.

While attempting to leap over defenders, Saints running back Pierre Thomas will be hit in the feet. After doing not one, not two, but three flips he'll land on his feet in stride for a 60+ yard TD run.

Colts quarterback Peyton Manning will go all Tonya Harding on Saints safety Darren Sharper's knee.

When asked what he plans on doing after having won the Superbowl, Drew Brees will respond "I'm going to Busch Gardens. In Virginia. When it's warmer and the park reopens."

All in all, a final score of 132-78 with the Saints on top. After all, who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints?

Oh damn, there's some football games tomorrow

After about 10:00 pm tomorrow we'll know who's playing in the Superbowl!

In the first fight we've got Payton Manning & the 16-2 Colts hosting the surging 11-7 Jets. Now, the Jets have the league's best defense and some pretty damn good running backs. But the Colts have Manning at quarterback and the Jets have the mistake-prone rookie Mark Sanchez.

The Jets surprised many by beating the Chargers last round, but the Colts are just too good this year. For all the talk about the Jets' confidence after taking down the Chargers, the Colts are probably feeling pretty good after destroying the Ravens, who themselves took out Indy's arch-rival Patriots in the Wild-Card round. I think the Colts will be headed back to the Superbowl for the second time in 5 years with relative ease.

Now for the main event - the NFC Championship Game. For most of the season, the Vikings and Saints clearly stood out as this conference's best teams, and in their Divisional Round games they certainly looked the part - beating the Cowboys and Cardinals by 31 points each. I shudder to even predict the winner of this game, but with a gun to my head I suppose I would pick the Saints to advance to the franchise's first Superbowl.

Too bad the Bengals couldn't crash the party too.

Playoff Stretch Preview

I meant to post this before this weekend's crop of games, but oh well:

That's right folks. It's time to start talking about the NFL playoff picture. I've drawn up a neat little chart of how I think the post season will shake down, right up to the Saints-Bengals superbowl!
Seeding is really important to any sports postseason, and the NFL is no exception. I see the current top seeds of both conferences staying put. It's very hard to imagine the undefeated Saints and Colts not capturing the top spots. A one-loss Vikings team looks to have a lock on the second spot in the NFC, while a 7-2 Bengals should coast through the remaining easy schedule to nail down the number two spot in the AFC. Even after an unexpected Raiders loss, I still think the Bengals will win nearly all of their remaining games. These four teams will be rewarded with a first round bye.

In the AFC East, it's pretty clear that the Patriots will run away with the division. The race was even in the AFC West, but the Broncos are on a serious decline after an unthinkable 6-0 start, and the Chargers have slowly but surely gained momentum and taken control of the division.

The wild card spots are quite interesting in the AFC, however, with at least 5 teams in hot contention for the last two playoff spots. I've kept the Ravens and Steelers out of the playoff picture because they have two meetings left this season. So they'll probably beat each other out of the race, while a "little-engine-that-could" Dolphins team that has lost three of its starters but has gotten better, and a pretty good Texans team will sneak in. The Broncos and possibly the Jaguars will join the Steelers and Ravens as teams just barely missing the post-season in the AFC.

In the NFC, the Cardinals have practically already won the West notwithstanding an extreme last season comeback by the initially dominant 49ers. The East is usually the Division to beat in the NFC, but this year the top three teams look wobbly. I see Philly bouncing back to win the division, the Cowboys season crashing late, and the Giants reemerging with a late season playoff berth in the 6th spot. The Falcons possibly have the easiest path to a wildcard in the NFC, and I think they'll get the 5th spot over the Giants.

Outside of the Bengals and Saints taking it all the way to the Superbowl, the Chargers will win a few January games, as will the Eagles. The only other wins I forecast are divisional round victories by the Patriots and Giants.

So there you have it, Dank-Game.

Until this looks ridiculous in 3 weeks and I redo it.

Week 8 NFL Observations

Another week in the NFL, and we know a little more about what to expect from here on out. Several teams who looked like post season locks a few weeks ago have fallen off, while others continue to dominate. And their are a handful of teams that just might be able to claw their way into the playoffs after a slow start. There's a lot of exciting football left this season.

No one is more exciting than the New Orleans Saints. Their Monday night game contained probably more errors than they've made all seasons against a good Falcons team. I have to think that this team would be nearly impossible to beat in a playoff situation, and as they'll likely have home field advantage throughout the playoffs that goes double.

The Colts are less exciting, but that's probably just because they win 12+ games every season. Regardless, Indianapolis is the only other undefeated team in the NFL, and they will look to make it deep into the playoffs for the first time since their Superbowl win. The Patriots, who have really hit their stride midseason, are still on both teams' schedules. Get excited.

Two long-shot teams that will be interesting to watch for the rest of the season are the Miami Dolphins and the Houston Texans. After losing their starting quarterback for the season, Miami swept a Jets team that started the season 3-0. The Texans have shaken off a poor start to emerge with a 5-3 record, and an excellent shot at the franchises first ever post season berth.

Elsewhere, it will likely be a photo finish between two inconsistent teams in the NFC-West - the Cardinals and 49ers. The AFC-North, NFC-East, and NFC-North each have three teams above .500, and only the NFC-North has a clear leader thus far.

Next week I will re-evaluate my playoff picks for the midseason mark (although two teams will have played 9 of their games. Don't blame me, I don't do the scheduling for the NFL). I imagine I'll take the Titans and Panthers out of the hunt! Reluctantly, I may have to add Pittsburgh.

Week 7 NFL observations

Hey dank-gamers.

The 'stache is back after an unintended and unwanted hiatus. I've worked almost 200 hours in the past 15 days, with only one day off. And since that wasn't a sunday, football has not been a part of my life the past two weeks. Pity.

Thanks to Slim for covering week 6. Moving forward:

Week 7 thrillers: The Cardinals are back! After starting the season terribly Kurt Warner and company are on a serious hot streak, which culminated Sunday night in the Meadowlands where they beat an excellent Giants team. The win, coupled with another 49ers loss, puts Arizona on top of their division for the first time this season.

The Bengals absolutely destroyed the Bears. Not much else needs to be said other than Who Dey! If the Bengals keep playing like this, they'll be a very dangerous team down the stretch and into the playoffs. Also, Carson Palmer was named AFC Offensive player of the week after throwing more TD passes than incompletions.

The Saints won decisively after coming back from a 21 point deficit against the Dolphins. The Colts and Broncos join the Saints as the other remaining undefeated teams, but I think the Saints are the cream of the crop. The Colts just keep beating the shit out of really bad teams in the their suddenly mediocre division, while the Saints have dismantled many impressive teams. I still don't know what to think about a Broncos team that I picked to be one of the worst in the NFL.

The Vikings would have remained undefeated were it not for a complete meltdown in the 4th quarter. The Steelers had no business winning this game, as Favre threw for a league high 334 yards. Minnesota will certainly get back on track, and as they head to Lambeau field, be prepared for a wild game in Green Bay this Sunday. The Bengals are on bye, so this game is an excellent consolation prize.

Some time later I'll post some amazing Ochocinco updates.

Slim's Week 6 NFL Observations

Once again, I'm filling in for Teenage Mustache with NFL coverage while he's out havin' fun in the warm California sun.

First up, a bit of good news for us Cincinnatians. While Antwan Odom is out for the season and will udergo surgery for his ruptured Achille's tendon, Domata Peko's knee injury is not serious. His availability for next week's home game against the Bears (which I'll be attending BTW) will be assessed later this week. Also, rookie tackle Andre Smith will return to practice after being sidelined all season from a broken foot suffered in practice.

There were some brutal blowouts on Sunday, most notably the Patriots who destroyed the lowly Titans 59-0 in the midst of New England flurries. The Pats set franchise records for points and yards with 619. Tom Brady also had the most touchdown passes in a quarter by any player since 1950, with five in the second quarter. The Titans are the worst defensive team in the league, and obviously they lived up to their reputation.

The Saints continued to impress, remaining undefeated at 5-0 as they beat the Giants 48-27. It should be noted that the Giants came into the game with the #1 defense in the league. Not sure if they still do after this one, though. After having two straight weeks without a touchdown pass, Drew Brees got back on track with 4 touchdown passes and 369 yards. I have to assume at this point the MVP picture has been narrowed down between Brees and Peyton Manning.

Brett Favre and the Vikings also remain undefeated at 6-0, after narrowly escaping a loss to the Ravens after a last second field goal miss that would have given Baltimore a one point victory had it been good. This gives Minnesota a comfortable lead in the NFC North, with the Packers in second at 3-2.

The Broncos and Colts are the only other remaining undefeated teams, as those old school brown and yellow unis that everyone seems to hate continue to keep Denver going strong. The Broncos knocked off division rivals San Diego to maintain their surprising run. I watched most of the first half and what stood out most was Denver's Eddie Royal, who returned a kickoff for a 93-yard touchdown in the first quarter as well as a punt for a 71-yard touchdown. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense were looking good in the first half, but those missteps on special teams ended up costing them the game.

What do you gotta say about the Broncos now, 'stache? I thought they were going to be the worst team in the NFL. I'm sure you'll be able to call me out on my NBA season predictions, so I should probably keep quiet.

Week 3 NFL Observations

The 'stache is back to fill the void left by a lack of online writing about professional sports.

Week Three was pretty interesting in the NFL, as several of the undefeated and winless teams so far come as a complete surprise. None of these surprises me more than the Carolina Panthers. Losing big to the Cowboys last night, I am wondering where the Panthers that won 12 games last season went. The NFC-South once again has flipped its standings from top to bottom from one year to the next. Excepting the Saints, the whole division looks a little weak.

Speaking of New Orleans, I believe they are the best team in the NFC right now. Even without Drew Brees throwing a touchdown (which will be a very rare occurrence this year), the Saints still handily beat Buffalo. Next week they take on the 3-0 Jets, and this one should be a blockbuster.

That won't be the only great game next week either. As I already wrote extensively about the AFC-North yesterday, I'll just move on.

Ravens at Patriots - This game will go a long way in determining who dominates the AFC this year. The Colts are easily tied as contenders, and it looks as though the Jets are somehow in the conversation.

Cowboys at Broncos - If the Broncos go 4-0, I will be shocked. The Cowboys need this game to keep pace with division rivals Philadelphia and New York.

San Diego at Pittsburgh - The Chargers need to catch up to the Broncos, and the Steelers are already two games out of contention in the AFC-North. These teams usually match up well, so this could be a very close one.

Green Bay at Minnesota - Ignore for a second the Brett-Favre-vs-his-old-team story line, and you'll realize that would have been a great game anyway. A win would suddenly put Green Bay at the top of the division.

'Til next week, Mustache out

Week Two NFL Observations

Back again, Mustache is bringing you his thoughts following week 2 of the NFL season. (As a side note, I'd like you all to sing "Baba O'Reilly" by the Who in your heads when thinking of me, replacing the lyric "Teenage Wasteland" with "Teenage_Mustache")

What a great weekend of football it was. The Bengals won, the Bearcats won, and the three teams I hate the most all lost. If not for a close Baltimore win, it would have been a perfect week.

Let's start with the biggest story of the week, the Pats going down the lowly Jets. I thought the Patriots were a lock to win this division after winning 11 games without Tom Brady last season. I also thought that Eric Mangini had train-wrecked this team, dooming them to mediocrity for years. But apparently quarterback Mark Sanchez was worth his draft status, as the Jets are now 2-0. And the Patriots look like anything but their nearly unbeatable 2007 selves.

Looking at where Mangini landed after the train wreck, the Cleveland Browns look like a 53-car pile-up (that's the number of players on an NFL roster - I couldn't come up with anything more clever). They lost to a good Vikings team week one, but looked absolutely awful against a poor Denver team that is somehow 2-0. I said before that I thought Denver would be the worst team in the league this year. I now believe that team will be the Browns. Jacksonville, Kansas City, Detroit, St. Louis and Tampa Bay will also be pretty awful, but most of these should come as no surprise.

The Bengals bounced back to beat a team on the road they were supposed to lose to. They looked shaky, with tons of penalties and the offensive line is still struggling, but the defense held their own with tons of sacks (mostly from Antwan Odom) and generally good play against a powerful offense. If they can pull out the win against the Steelers next week, look for the national media to start talking about them as a playoff team (or talk about them at all at least)

Two teams that have really impressed me so far this year are the Saints and the Colts. I picked the Saints to win their division, and I'm quite thrilled with their performance through two games. Drew Brees is on pace to throw 72 TD passes (let me be the first to say there's no way this will happen - but he may very well beat the 50 TD record Brady set in 2007). Their defense looks improved enough to build on the highest octane offense from last season.

The Colts have surprised me, as I thought this could be a down year for them. Almost their entire coach staff turned over, and yet Peyton Manning continues to impress. The MVP race is looking like a showdown between Brees, Manning, Adrian Peterson and maybe Philip Rivers and it's only week two!

Then again, it's just week two.

Week One NFL Observations

It's amazing how set in stone a team's fate seems after week one. Every team that won is playoff bound, and every team that loses is doomed to spend the season drifting further and further away from a playoff berth.

However, this instant optimism and pessimism are misleading. For example, the Chargers started each of the last two years with multiple game losing streaks and yet still made the playoffs. Meanwhile Dallas and Buffalo got out to fast starts last year, but neither ended up playing in January.

So rather than re-evaluate my playoff predictions every freaking week, I'm simply going to speak about trends and observations I see after each weekend of NFL football.

1. The Eagles might be as good as advertised. They destroyed the Panthers at home, a team that did not lose a regular season home game last year. If they have a weak spot, it's that McNabb suffered a broken rib in the shellacking. Vick is still suspended until week three, and Kevin Kolb isn't very good so the Eagles today signed free agent Jeff Garcia. The last time Garcia played for the Eagles he led them to a late season playoff berth, so with Vick in the mix too and McNabb not officially out even for next week, I imagine they'll overcome the setback.

2. The Broncos suck, but the Bengals suck more. At least for now. Clearly a defense that can hold a supposedly offensive minded team to 6 points (plus another total fluke touchdown in the last minute) should win the game. If the Bengals offense can find a rhythm and start scoring some points they could actually turn it around. Meanwhile, if Denver beats Cleveland at home next week (which they easily could), do not expect much more. I still believe this is a clunker team, coming off a win that may also be a clunker team, about to play a team that is definitely a clunker team.

3. Dallas faithful shouldn't start looking toward January yet. They beat Tampa Bay, almost certainly a league bottom-dweller this year. They play the Giants next week, which will be a much, much better test.

4. The bay area can suddenly play football again. San Francisco beating Arizona, in consideration with their strong finish last season after Mike Singletary took over, is strong evidence of a team rounding the corner. Too early to say if they'll compete for a division title, but don't be surprised. Oakland, although losing to San Diego, at least looked good for the first time in recent memory. JaMarcus Russell looked sharper than last season, one of the rookie receivers played decently enough, and the running game was quite formidable. They will likely steal some games from elite teams.

5. Adrian Peterson is amazing. Favre wasn't great, but he didn't make any major mistakes and the Vikings did win the game.

6. Either the Saints are really good this year (especially their offense), or the Lions are still terrible. Likely a combination of the two. I still think the Lions will win at least one game this season, but why not extend the streak for a little while first?

Until next week, or until Ochocinco does something crazy.

2009 NFL preview - NFC

And in an obvious follow up to yesterday's post, here's Dank Game's NFC season preview that you were so excited about.

West

I see a lot of flux in this division as compared to last year. I do not see Arizona repeating a playoff run, although their offense will likely continue to put up big points. San Francisco is a rising star in a poor division, and just good enough to edge out a Cardinals team that will win few games outside the division.

Seattle dominated this division for years, and lost their own Superbowl to Pittsburgh, but even with the addition of T.J. Houshmenzadeh, the window on this team has likely closed. Meanwhile the Rams, who have been terrible for a couple years now, will just barely edge out Seattle for the number three spot in the division while still falling under .500

South

I see the NFC South getting shaken up as well. I really believe New Orleans has done enough to upgrade their defense to win this division, as tough as it may be. The offense will be as potent as last season, and the Saints will likely run up the score on the NFL's bottom feeders.

Last year's division winner, Carolina will remain in the playoffs, although through the wild card. They will be chased by a good Atlanta team, who will just barely miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, it appears Tampa Bay has collapsed. With a new head coach and still not fully decided starting quarterback situation, Tampa will be in a distant fourth.

North

I didn't make any changes in this division. However, I do think the Bears will make the playoffs this year via the wild card, and Green Bay may very well have a winning record. Detroit to bottom out the division is too painfully obvious to bother explaining.

The Vikings are a hot team this year following the Brett Favre signing. The team is basically the same as the one that won the division last year, but with at least a slightly better quarterback situation. And Chicago will be imporved with Jay Cutler behind center instead of Kyle Orton. And Detroit will win at least one game.

East

I briefly wrestled with the question of whether to put Philadelphia or New York on top of this division. I'm starting to think that much-hyped Eagles are over-hyped and I don't see what the Michael Vick signing really does for them. But they are still a more complete team than the rest of the NFC, and Donovan McNabb is a better quarterback than Eli Manning. New York will be close to a wild card berth, possibly losing out on a tie-breaker scenario.

Most expect Washington to finish the division in last place, but I think they're a better team than advertised. Dallas fans seem to use T.O. as a scapegoat for last seasons playoff miss, but I do not think this team has improved, and see them falling probably a game behind the Redskins.

Playoff Picture