2011 NFL Gambling Guide

What is the steal of the 2010 Gambling season?

Bodog Sports, a Vegas sports gambling outlet, is giving the Cincinnati Bengals 30/1 odds of winning the next Superbowl!  Can you even imagine the payoff when the Bengals cross the NFL finish line in first place.  Guys, you could turn $100 into $3,000 or $100,000 into $3,000,000.

Take it from me, and my surprisingly slightly-more-than-half right 2009 NFL predictions.  Let's review!

First I picked the playoff teams for the AFC teams.  And oh boy did I nail four of the six playoff teams!  I missed the Colts as the top seed - I thought the loss of Tony Dungy and some of the rest of their coaching staff might actually disrupt the continuity Peyton Manning has enjoyed since coming into the league.  My theory finally paid off when the Colts lost the Superbowl . . .

I thought the Titans would would have a great in place of the Colts.  And they did, but only after losing the first 6 games and replacing their starting quarterback.  I feel I should get a mulligan on that one.  Same with the Texans, one of my wildcard picks, who came damn to close to the post season.  They posted the same record as the 5th seed Ravens and 6th seed Jets, but lost in tiebreakers.

So let's talk about the Ravens.  I totally had both them and the Bengals in postseason, but I flip-flopped the division winner and wildcard team.  Being only a game off, I feel pretty justified here.

Lastly, I had the Chargers and Patriots winning their divisions.  Like everyone else.

I did nearly as well in the NFC playoff predictions.  The Vikings unsurprisingly cruised to a second straight division title.  I expected the Bears to best the Packers for a wildcard spot, but I failed to realize how poor Chicago's coaches were.  And now they're mostly fired.

I picked the Eagles for a much better season than they had, but the did make the playoffs.  I'm still not sure how the Cowboys managed to be a playoff team and beat Philadelphia three times in one season.

Elsewhere I picked the 49ers and Panthers for big seasons.  Although neither did horrendously, they did miss the playoffs.  At least San Francisco kept the NFC-West interesting.

Most happily of all though, I had the Saints making the playoffs and going on a long postseason run from the beginning.  Geaux Saints!

So take it from me gambling aficionados.  A guy who's right 58% of the time

Week 4 NFL Observations

We're a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and I think it's time to analyze my season predictions:

AFC

NFC

First, in the Bengals' AFC-N, I am dead on so far. Although the Bengals and Ravens are tied for first place, I basically got it right. I must say that the middle of the season gives me cause for concern. The Bengals have a tough slate coming up, against the Ravens twice, Texans and Bears at home, and Pittsburgh on the road. It may be tough to emerge with a winning record, while Pittsburgh has some serious softballs in Detroit and Cleveland. As the Bengals end of season slate is fairly soft, so long as they emerge within playoff contention I think they can make it. I don't expect the Browns to win more than a couple games, and I don't think the Ravens will lose more than a few.

I was also pretty dead on the NFC-W. San Francisco is clearly the class of the division right now, and with pretty bad teams in St. Louis and Seattle, Arizona should at least find their way to second place.

I'm killing it the NFC-N too. Minnesota remains undefeated, and after a very poor week one showing, Chicago looks like a playoff contender. Green Bay looks improved, except for their offensive line, but I think even a 9-7 season could lead them to 3rd place in the division. My prediction that the Lions would win at least one game came true. Maybe they'll win a second against Pittsburgh?

It's too early to call in the NFC-E, but the two teams I put on top - Philadelphia and New York - are clearly better than Dallas and Washington. The Redskins look pretty bad though, so they might not manage to best the Cowboys in the division, and it looks like the Giants may be a hair better than the Eagles after all.

Actually, I'm doing pretty well in the NFC. In the South, I was wrong about the Panthers, but the Saints are clearly on their way to winning the division, and the Buccaneers are clearly on their way to last place. I don't know what's wrong with the Panthers, but it remains possible for them to pull out of a 0-3 funk.

In the rest of the AFC, I made some mistakes. The biggest were in the AFC-S. I put the Titans on top and the Colts at third. Well, the Colts look like one of the 3 best teams in football, and the Titans are amazingly 0-4, most recently losing to a Jaguars team that most (myself included) had written off. Well, now the Jags and Texans are 2-2, so both could make mid season runs at playoff berths, while the Titans are basically already done for the year, a year after having the best record in football. Strange.

The AFC-W features the single biggest surprise for me - an undefeated Broncos team. I still think the Chargers can come roaring back for the division crown, just like they did last year. And I'm not too surprised that Kansas City and Oakland aren't very good. The main surprise is that the Chargers are actually facing competition to win this division.

Last, the AFC-E threw me off as well. The Jets are tied for first with a re-emerging New England team. Buffalo and Miami both look mediocre, so I expect this dynamic to play out for the rest of the year. The big question is whether both the Jets and Pats can make the playoffs. I'd be pretty thrilled if the Patriots don't.

If I'm still looking decent, I might revisit these again at the season's mid point.

2009 NFL preview - NFC

And in an obvious follow up to yesterday's post, here's Dank Game's NFC season preview that you were so excited about.

West

I see a lot of flux in this division as compared to last year. I do not see Arizona repeating a playoff run, although their offense will likely continue to put up big points. San Francisco is a rising star in a poor division, and just good enough to edge out a Cardinals team that will win few games outside the division.

Seattle dominated this division for years, and lost their own Superbowl to Pittsburgh, but even with the addition of T.J. Houshmenzadeh, the window on this team has likely closed. Meanwhile the Rams, who have been terrible for a couple years now, will just barely edge out Seattle for the number three spot in the division while still falling under .500

South

I see the NFC South getting shaken up as well. I really believe New Orleans has done enough to upgrade their defense to win this division, as tough as it may be. The offense will be as potent as last season, and the Saints will likely run up the score on the NFL's bottom feeders.

Last year's division winner, Carolina will remain in the playoffs, although through the wild card. They will be chased by a good Atlanta team, who will just barely miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, it appears Tampa Bay has collapsed. With a new head coach and still not fully decided starting quarterback situation, Tampa will be in a distant fourth.

North

I didn't make any changes in this division. However, I do think the Bears will make the playoffs this year via the wild card, and Green Bay may very well have a winning record. Detroit to bottom out the division is too painfully obvious to bother explaining.

The Vikings are a hot team this year following the Brett Favre signing. The team is basically the same as the one that won the division last year, but with at least a slightly better quarterback situation. And Chicago will be imporved with Jay Cutler behind center instead of Kyle Orton. And Detroit will win at least one game.

East

I briefly wrestled with the question of whether to put Philadelphia or New York on top of this division. I'm starting to think that much-hyped Eagles are over-hyped and I don't see what the Michael Vick signing really does for them. But they are still a more complete team than the rest of the NFC, and Donovan McNabb is a better quarterback than Eli Manning. New York will be close to a wild card berth, possibly losing out on a tie-breaker scenario.

Most expect Washington to finish the division in last place, but I think they're a better team than advertised. Dallas fans seem to use T.O. as a scapegoat for last seasons playoff miss, but I do not think this team has improved, and see them falling probably a game behind the Redskins.

Playoff Picture