NFC East Preview

Did I save the best for last? Maybe, as the NFC East is usually one of the best divisions in football. But we've caught two teams from this division in semi- "rebuild" mode and another in "win-now" mode. I can't believe that only the Dallas Cowboys actually look like true contenders in this division, but it's simply been shaken apart since last season. The Giants, especially defensively, have been on a slow decline since winning a Superbowl. The Eagles have handed the reigns to a new starting quarterback, and the Redskins are practically a fantasy football team, but not a particularly good one.

Division Winner: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is the only model of consistency in the division. Quarterback Tony Romo has steadily improved each season under head coach Wade Phillips. And even when his receivers aren't playing to their pay grade, an unknown always seems to pop up and pick up the slack (see: Miles Austin). They also have very good, although aging running backs and a well rounded defense. Coming off a playoff win last year, Dallas looks to compete with New Orleans and Minnesota for a top seed and playoff bye week. I think we'll see eleven wins out of them.

Division Runner-Up: Philadelphia Eagles

This was a tough choice, as each of these three teams have so many question marks, but ultimately Philly has the fewest. New starting quarterback Kevin Kolb did start two games in place of then-injured, now-traded Donovan McNabb and looked pretty good in the process. Plus Michael Vick is still their back-up, so quarterbacking might not truly be a big issue for this team. Plus they've got lot's of young talent at the other offensive skill positions. Their defense hasn't been quite the same since the death of their longtime defensive coordinator before the 2009 season began, but they're no slouches either. The offensive line is aging and somewhat suspect, but that shouldn't stop the Eagles from winning nine games.

Division Third Place: Washington Redskins

When in doubt, take last year's ranking and switch the bottom two teams. At least, that's what I've done in a few of these previews! But the 'Skins really should be much improved this year with a new and proven head coach in Mike Shanahan and trade acquisition Donovan McNabb. This is one of the oldest teams in the league, as they consistently trade away their draft picks for high profile, under-performing free agents like DT Albert Haynesworth. But McNabb is a difference maker, and for years in Philly succeeded with sub-par receiver talent. I sincerely doubt Washington will compete for a playoff spot, but seven wins doesn't seem improbable.

Division Basement: New York Giants

The Giants have really skidded since winning it all a few years ago. Although their wide receiver corps has actually improved greatly with well spent draft picks, the defense has slowly fallen apart. The team knows it too, having changed coordinators. But unless Perry Fewell can get a lot more out a once-fearsome defensive line now in a multi-year slump, New York simply won't be able compete in a tough division in the currently stronger conference. Eli Manning is a decent quarterback, but you can't quite expect this offense to score the twenty-eight points they'll likely need almost every game to win. This is another team I've put in the cellar that could surprise, but I'm predicting six wins and the end of Tom Coughlin's coaching career.

2011 NFL Gambling Guide

What is the steal of the 2010 Gambling season?

Bodog Sports, a Vegas sports gambling outlet, is giving the Cincinnati Bengals 30/1 odds of winning the next Superbowl!  Can you even imagine the payoff when the Bengals cross the NFL finish line in first place.  Guys, you could turn $100 into $3,000 or $100,000 into $3,000,000.

Take it from me, and my surprisingly slightly-more-than-half right 2009 NFL predictions.  Let's review!

First I picked the playoff teams for the AFC teams.  And oh boy did I nail four of the six playoff teams!  I missed the Colts as the top seed - I thought the loss of Tony Dungy and some of the rest of their coaching staff might actually disrupt the continuity Peyton Manning has enjoyed since coming into the league.  My theory finally paid off when the Colts lost the Superbowl . . .

I thought the Titans would would have a great in place of the Colts.  And they did, but only after losing the first 6 games and replacing their starting quarterback.  I feel I should get a mulligan on that one.  Same with the Texans, one of my wildcard picks, who came damn to close to the post season.  They posted the same record as the 5th seed Ravens and 6th seed Jets, but lost in tiebreakers.

So let's talk about the Ravens.  I totally had both them and the Bengals in postseason, but I flip-flopped the division winner and wildcard team.  Being only a game off, I feel pretty justified here.

Lastly, I had the Chargers and Patriots winning their divisions.  Like everyone else.

I did nearly as well in the NFC playoff predictions.  The Vikings unsurprisingly cruised to a second straight division title.  I expected the Bears to best the Packers for a wildcard spot, but I failed to realize how poor Chicago's coaches were.  And now they're mostly fired.

I picked the Eagles for a much better season than they had, but the did make the playoffs.  I'm still not sure how the Cowboys managed to be a playoff team and beat Philadelphia three times in one season.

Elsewhere I picked the 49ers and Panthers for big seasons.  Although neither did horrendously, they did miss the playoffs.  At least San Francisco kept the NFC-West interesting.

Most happily of all though, I had the Saints making the playoffs and going on a long postseason run from the beginning.  Geaux Saints!

So take it from me gambling aficionados.  A guy who's right 58% of the time

Week 5 NFL Observations

Starting with the last game first, here's Mustache's observations (stachvations? mustavations? I'll work on this) from week 5 in the NFL:

The Dolphins are back. Written off after a 3 game losing streak to start the season, it looked like Miami was in a division where the Jets and Patriots would distance themselves easily from the bottom of the pack. But after back-to-back Jets and Patriots losses and back-to-back division wins for the Fins, the pecking order has changed a little bit. But not for Buffalo. They lost to the Browns in a game where their quarterback only completed two passes.

I am probably most surprised by Jacksonville's blowout loss to the Seahawks. Seattle has been mediocre at best this season, and the Jaguars looked like a team that could turn it around after a poor start. If the Jaguars are going to be a contender this season they have to win games like this, not lose by 41 points. After a few seasons of being the best division in the AFC, the South looks terrible. After the undefeated Colts, the remaining three teams have a combined 4-11 record.

McNabb is back in Philadelphia, and I'll be damned if the Eagles don't look like a top 5 team again. The Eagle's young receivers look excellent, and McNabb threw two incredible touchdown passes. This is probably the best team to have lost a game (sorry Bengals).

Other notables:

Indianapolis, the New York Giants and Minnesota continue to look excellent, all winning in convincing fashion.

Pittsburgh had some trouble with Detroit and Dallas had a lot of trouble with Kansas City. Both did pull out wins, but these teams are not as good as many think, especially not the Cowboys.

Week One NFL Observations

It's amazing how set in stone a team's fate seems after week one. Every team that won is playoff bound, and every team that loses is doomed to spend the season drifting further and further away from a playoff berth.

However, this instant optimism and pessimism are misleading. For example, the Chargers started each of the last two years with multiple game losing streaks and yet still made the playoffs. Meanwhile Dallas and Buffalo got out to fast starts last year, but neither ended up playing in January.

So rather than re-evaluate my playoff predictions every freaking week, I'm simply going to speak about trends and observations I see after each weekend of NFL football.

1. The Eagles might be as good as advertised. They destroyed the Panthers at home, a team that did not lose a regular season home game last year. If they have a weak spot, it's that McNabb suffered a broken rib in the shellacking. Vick is still suspended until week three, and Kevin Kolb isn't very good so the Eagles today signed free agent Jeff Garcia. The last time Garcia played for the Eagles he led them to a late season playoff berth, so with Vick in the mix too and McNabb not officially out even for next week, I imagine they'll overcome the setback.

2. The Broncos suck, but the Bengals suck more. At least for now. Clearly a defense that can hold a supposedly offensive minded team to 6 points (plus another total fluke touchdown in the last minute) should win the game. If the Bengals offense can find a rhythm and start scoring some points they could actually turn it around. Meanwhile, if Denver beats Cleveland at home next week (which they easily could), do not expect much more. I still believe this is a clunker team, coming off a win that may also be a clunker team, about to play a team that is definitely a clunker team.

3. Dallas faithful shouldn't start looking toward January yet. They beat Tampa Bay, almost certainly a league bottom-dweller this year. They play the Giants next week, which will be a much, much better test.

4. The bay area can suddenly play football again. San Francisco beating Arizona, in consideration with their strong finish last season after Mike Singletary took over, is strong evidence of a team rounding the corner. Too early to say if they'll compete for a division title, but don't be surprised. Oakland, although losing to San Diego, at least looked good for the first time in recent memory. JaMarcus Russell looked sharper than last season, one of the rookie receivers played decently enough, and the running game was quite formidable. They will likely steal some games from elite teams.

5. Adrian Peterson is amazing. Favre wasn't great, but he didn't make any major mistakes and the Vikings did win the game.

6. Either the Saints are really good this year (especially their offense), or the Lions are still terrible. Likely a combination of the two. I still think the Lions will win at least one game this season, but why not extend the streak for a little while first?

Until next week, or until Ochocinco does something crazy.

2009 NFL preview - NFC

And in an obvious follow up to yesterday's post, here's Dank Game's NFC season preview that you were so excited about.

West

I see a lot of flux in this division as compared to last year. I do not see Arizona repeating a playoff run, although their offense will likely continue to put up big points. San Francisco is a rising star in a poor division, and just good enough to edge out a Cardinals team that will win few games outside the division.

Seattle dominated this division for years, and lost their own Superbowl to Pittsburgh, but even with the addition of T.J. Houshmenzadeh, the window on this team has likely closed. Meanwhile the Rams, who have been terrible for a couple years now, will just barely edge out Seattle for the number three spot in the division while still falling under .500

South

I see the NFC South getting shaken up as well. I really believe New Orleans has done enough to upgrade their defense to win this division, as tough as it may be. The offense will be as potent as last season, and the Saints will likely run up the score on the NFL's bottom feeders.

Last year's division winner, Carolina will remain in the playoffs, although through the wild card. They will be chased by a good Atlanta team, who will just barely miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, it appears Tampa Bay has collapsed. With a new head coach and still not fully decided starting quarterback situation, Tampa will be in a distant fourth.

North

I didn't make any changes in this division. However, I do think the Bears will make the playoffs this year via the wild card, and Green Bay may very well have a winning record. Detroit to bottom out the division is too painfully obvious to bother explaining.

The Vikings are a hot team this year following the Brett Favre signing. The team is basically the same as the one that won the division last year, but with at least a slightly better quarterback situation. And Chicago will be imporved with Jay Cutler behind center instead of Kyle Orton. And Detroit will win at least one game.

East

I briefly wrestled with the question of whether to put Philadelphia or New York on top of this division. I'm starting to think that much-hyped Eagles are over-hyped and I don't see what the Michael Vick signing really does for them. But they are still a more complete team than the rest of the NFC, and Donovan McNabb is a better quarterback than Eli Manning. New York will be close to a wild card berth, possibly losing out on a tie-breaker scenario.

Most expect Washington to finish the division in last place, but I think they're a better team than advertised. Dallas fans seem to use T.O. as a scapegoat for last seasons playoff miss, but I do not think this team has improved, and see them falling probably a game behind the Redskins.

Playoff Picture