AFC South Preview

For my third of eight NFL division by division previews I'm continuing my tour of the AFC with it's South division. Hosting the Superbowl losing Colts, as well as generally good teams in Tennessee and Houston, this will likely be a close contest. Even perennially underachieving Jacksonville could very well put together a surprisingly good team.

Last year I foolishly picked the Colts to miss the playoffs. And they only won fourteen games and made the Superbowl with a rookie head coach! So I will not bet against the Colts again this year. Like everyone else, I had the 2008 division winning Titans pretty high last year, and their six game losing streak to start last season now appears to have been an aberration. Both Tennessee and Jacksonville have game changing running backs, so it's possible to count them out. And Houston, not Indianapolis, New England or New Orleans, had the top passer in football last year.

Division Winner: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are just going to be good until Peyton Manning isn't on the team anymore. I've come to accept this fact. Usually the team that loses the Superbowl misses the playoffs the following season, but I would be shocked really if the "Superbowl Hangover" afflicted this team that won fourteen games with a rookie head coach. The Colts have probably the worst running game of any contending team, but it rarely seems to matter for them. I wouldn't think they can win as many games again next year in an improved division, but they'll probably still hit twelve wins.

Division Runner-Up: Houston Texans

This team has progressed so slowly since entering the league in 2002 that you'd think you were reading about building an MLB team. But low and behold, the Texans finally posted their first winning season last year on the strength of quarterback Matt Schaub's league best throwing total. They also sported the best defense in the Division last season. Lead tackler (and former USC teammate of Rey Maualuga) linebacker Brian Cushing will be suspended for the beginning of the season, but their defense should at least keep them in position to win games. Like so many others, I'm predicting that the Texans finally make the playoffs this year, probably with ten wins and a wildcard berth.

Division Third Place: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have had a lot of talent and even some postseason appearances over the last several season, but they never do well when the spotlight is on. After a division worst 7-9 record complete with a four game losing streak to end the season, the spotlight is very far off Jacksonville. This will work to their advantage, and as long as they have running back Maurice Jones-Drew they'll have a chance. They also get competent though not inspired quarterback play from David Garrard, and a defense that really could be a lot worse. As the only team in the division making significant draft picks, their defense should be improved with a possibly formidable defensive line. I'll pencil in the Jaguars for eights wins, but wouldn't be surprised if they end up a couple wins north or south of there.

Division Basement: Tennessee Titans

This is probably the ultimate sink-or-swim team in the 2010 football season. Although Chris Johnson is coming off an extremely rare 2,ooo yard rushing performance and quarterback Vince Young showed renewed life after being reinstated into the starting lineup last year, both face a lot of off the field adversity, especially in the form of their contracts. Vince Young is in the last year of his rookie deal and the team is reluctant to put a lot of long term money down on such a hot and cold QB. Chris Johnson set an NFL record for total yards from scrimmage last year and wants to get paid like it. To further complicate matters, their defense was terrible last year, so their performances will have to make up for it. If this team puts it together and Young and Johnson both have another magic season, this could be an eleven win team headed for the playoffs and lucrative contract extensions. Playing the odds however, it seems more likely they're headed to seven wins.

Playoff Stretch Preview

I meant to post this before this weekend's crop of games, but oh well:

That's right folks. It's time to start talking about the NFL playoff picture. I've drawn up a neat little chart of how I think the post season will shake down, right up to the Saints-Bengals superbowl!
Seeding is really important to any sports postseason, and the NFL is no exception. I see the current top seeds of both conferences staying put. It's very hard to imagine the undefeated Saints and Colts not capturing the top spots. A one-loss Vikings team looks to have a lock on the second spot in the NFC, while a 7-2 Bengals should coast through the remaining easy schedule to nail down the number two spot in the AFC. Even after an unexpected Raiders loss, I still think the Bengals will win nearly all of their remaining games. These four teams will be rewarded with a first round bye.

In the AFC East, it's pretty clear that the Patriots will run away with the division. The race was even in the AFC West, but the Broncos are on a serious decline after an unthinkable 6-0 start, and the Chargers have slowly but surely gained momentum and taken control of the division.

The wild card spots are quite interesting in the AFC, however, with at least 5 teams in hot contention for the last two playoff spots. I've kept the Ravens and Steelers out of the playoff picture because they have two meetings left this season. So they'll probably beat each other out of the race, while a "little-engine-that-could" Dolphins team that has lost three of its starters but has gotten better, and a pretty good Texans team will sneak in. The Broncos and possibly the Jaguars will join the Steelers and Ravens as teams just barely missing the post-season in the AFC.

In the NFC, the Cardinals have practically already won the West notwithstanding an extreme last season comeback by the initially dominant 49ers. The East is usually the Division to beat in the NFC, but this year the top three teams look wobbly. I see Philly bouncing back to win the division, the Cowboys season crashing late, and the Giants reemerging with a late season playoff berth in the 6th spot. The Falcons possibly have the easiest path to a wildcard in the NFC, and I think they'll get the 5th spot over the Giants.

Outside of the Bengals and Saints taking it all the way to the Superbowl, the Chargers will win a few January games, as will the Eagles. The only other wins I forecast are divisional round victories by the Patriots and Giants.

So there you have it, Dank-Game.

Until this looks ridiculous in 3 weeks and I redo it.

Week 5 NFL Observations

Starting with the last game first, here's Mustache's observations (stachvations? mustavations? I'll work on this) from week 5 in the NFL:

The Dolphins are back. Written off after a 3 game losing streak to start the season, it looked like Miami was in a division where the Jets and Patriots would distance themselves easily from the bottom of the pack. But after back-to-back Jets and Patriots losses and back-to-back division wins for the Fins, the pecking order has changed a little bit. But not for Buffalo. They lost to the Browns in a game where their quarterback only completed two passes.

I am probably most surprised by Jacksonville's blowout loss to the Seahawks. Seattle has been mediocre at best this season, and the Jaguars looked like a team that could turn it around after a poor start. If the Jaguars are going to be a contender this season they have to win games like this, not lose by 41 points. After a few seasons of being the best division in the AFC, the South looks terrible. After the undefeated Colts, the remaining three teams have a combined 4-11 record.

McNabb is back in Philadelphia, and I'll be damned if the Eagles don't look like a top 5 team again. The Eagle's young receivers look excellent, and McNabb threw two incredible touchdown passes. This is probably the best team to have lost a game (sorry Bengals).

Other notables:

Indianapolis, the New York Giants and Minnesota continue to look excellent, all winning in convincing fashion.

Pittsburgh had some trouble with Detroit and Dallas had a lot of trouble with Kansas City. Both did pull out wins, but these teams are not as good as many think, especially not the Cowboys.

NFL 2009 preview - AFC

Just what you need. Another season preview!

I have to post these now, a week before the regular season begins, so we can either look back at how much of a genius I was, or (more likely) make fun of me for wasting my time with a ridiculously incorrect outlook. To that end, I will predict the playoff teams, but not actual playoff results. I'll do that come January, so in February we can either praise me as a football-savant, or (more likely) make fun of me!

So let's begin:

West

This is as good a place to start as any. The Chargers have locked up this division for several straight years, and given how bad the Raiders and Chiefs have been for a while, the Chargers are virtual locks to repeat. Denver was within one game of winning the division last year, but a late season meltdown (and that's being kind) and a rookie head coach have led to a disastrous offseason. They lost their Pro Bowl quarterback and will probably lose their leading receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos were the worst team in football this year. Yes, worse than the Lions.

I have the Raiders in second, largely because they will win games in a weak division and have the talent to take a few surprise games here and there. The new regime in Kansas City is more promising than in Denver, but the turnaround is very unlikely to happen quickly.

South

This is a tough division to predict. For years it has been dominated by the Colts until the Titans burst through with the best record in football. The Jaguars were pegged as the hot team last season, but collapsed almost immediately after a solid postseason to tend their 2007 campaign. The Texans keep going 8-8.

While I don't think the Titans will have the best record in football again, and although they lost star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, I think they still have the pieces in place to repeat a division crown. I think Houston is poised for a decent year, and are possible rising stars. A wild card berth seems possible. I'm sure I'll regret this prediction, but this will be the first year the Colts don't go to the playoffs in a long time, although they may still post a 9-7 record. I find it unlikely that Jacksonville can find their stride in such a tough division.

North

Yeah that's right. I put the defending Superbowl champs at third in their own division. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a ton last year, and their relatively poor offensive line wasn't fortified with any notable free agents or draft picks. It seems likely he could go down this season. The Ravens will meanwhile continue to have a serviceable offense while maintaining a top notch defense, despite losing Terrel Suggs.

Cincinnati appears on the rise after a solid offseason. If Carson Palmer stays healthy a wild card berth seems within reach so long as they can win divisional games. The Browns will be one of the bottom three teams in football. Not only is their new coach, Eric Mangini, not a very good coach, but he is stepping into one of the worst rosters in football. Ten days out from the start of his season and he hasn't named a starting quarterback!

East

It's almost impossible to imagine the Patriots not winning this division. Without Tom Brady last season they still hit 11-5, and if it weren't for a tie-breaker with the even-record Dolphins they would have won the division. It is doubtful that they'll have another perfect regular season, but on paper this team is just as good. Meanwhile, Miami will take a step backward, probably ending the season around .500.

Elsewhere, the Jets are in rebuilding mode, and will probably have a long season ahead of them. Buffalo I think could be an exciting team, and while I don't neccesarily think that they'll be playoff contenders, I do think end the season with a winning record.

Playoff Picture