AFC South Preview

For my third of eight NFL division by division previews I'm continuing my tour of the AFC with it's South division. Hosting the Superbowl losing Colts, as well as generally good teams in Tennessee and Houston, this will likely be a close contest. Even perennially underachieving Jacksonville could very well put together a surprisingly good team.

Last year I foolishly picked the Colts to miss the playoffs. And they only won fourteen games and made the Superbowl with a rookie head coach! So I will not bet against the Colts again this year. Like everyone else, I had the 2008 division winning Titans pretty high last year, and their six game losing streak to start last season now appears to have been an aberration. Both Tennessee and Jacksonville have game changing running backs, so it's possible to count them out. And Houston, not Indianapolis, New England or New Orleans, had the top passer in football last year.

Division Winner: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are just going to be good until Peyton Manning isn't on the team anymore. I've come to accept this fact. Usually the team that loses the Superbowl misses the playoffs the following season, but I would be shocked really if the "Superbowl Hangover" afflicted this team that won fourteen games with a rookie head coach. The Colts have probably the worst running game of any contending team, but it rarely seems to matter for them. I wouldn't think they can win as many games again next year in an improved division, but they'll probably still hit twelve wins.

Division Runner-Up: Houston Texans

This team has progressed so slowly since entering the league in 2002 that you'd think you were reading about building an MLB team. But low and behold, the Texans finally posted their first winning season last year on the strength of quarterback Matt Schaub's league best throwing total. They also sported the best defense in the Division last season. Lead tackler (and former USC teammate of Rey Maualuga) linebacker Brian Cushing will be suspended for the beginning of the season, but their defense should at least keep them in position to win games. Like so many others, I'm predicting that the Texans finally make the playoffs this year, probably with ten wins and a wildcard berth.

Division Third Place: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have had a lot of talent and even some postseason appearances over the last several season, but they never do well when the spotlight is on. After a division worst 7-9 record complete with a four game losing streak to end the season, the spotlight is very far off Jacksonville. This will work to their advantage, and as long as they have running back Maurice Jones-Drew they'll have a chance. They also get competent though not inspired quarterback play from David Garrard, and a defense that really could be a lot worse. As the only team in the division making significant draft picks, their defense should be improved with a possibly formidable defensive line. I'll pencil in the Jaguars for eights wins, but wouldn't be surprised if they end up a couple wins north or south of there.

Division Basement: Tennessee Titans

This is probably the ultimate sink-or-swim team in the 2010 football season. Although Chris Johnson is coming off an extremely rare 2,ooo yard rushing performance and quarterback Vince Young showed renewed life after being reinstated into the starting lineup last year, both face a lot of off the field adversity, especially in the form of their contracts. Vince Young is in the last year of his rookie deal and the team is reluctant to put a lot of long term money down on such a hot and cold QB. Chris Johnson set an NFL record for total yards from scrimmage last year and wants to get paid like it. To further complicate matters, their defense was terrible last year, so their performances will have to make up for it. If this team puts it together and Young and Johnson both have another magic season, this could be an eleven win team headed for the playoffs and lucrative contract extensions. Playing the odds however, it seems more likely they're headed to seven wins.

Slim's Week 6 NFL Observations

Once again, I'm filling in for Teenage Mustache with NFL coverage while he's out havin' fun in the warm California sun.

First up, a bit of good news for us Cincinnatians. While Antwan Odom is out for the season and will udergo surgery for his ruptured Achille's tendon, Domata Peko's knee injury is not serious. His availability for next week's home game against the Bears (which I'll be attending BTW) will be assessed later this week. Also, rookie tackle Andre Smith will return to practice after being sidelined all season from a broken foot suffered in practice.

There were some brutal blowouts on Sunday, most notably the Patriots who destroyed the lowly Titans 59-0 in the midst of New England flurries. The Pats set franchise records for points and yards with 619. Tom Brady also had the most touchdown passes in a quarter by any player since 1950, with five in the second quarter. The Titans are the worst defensive team in the league, and obviously they lived up to their reputation.

The Saints continued to impress, remaining undefeated at 5-0 as they beat the Giants 48-27. It should be noted that the Giants came into the game with the #1 defense in the league. Not sure if they still do after this one, though. After having two straight weeks without a touchdown pass, Drew Brees got back on track with 4 touchdown passes and 369 yards. I have to assume at this point the MVP picture has been narrowed down between Brees and Peyton Manning.

Brett Favre and the Vikings also remain undefeated at 6-0, after narrowly escaping a loss to the Ravens after a last second field goal miss that would have given Baltimore a one point victory had it been good. This gives Minnesota a comfortable lead in the NFC North, with the Packers in second at 3-2.

The Broncos and Colts are the only other remaining undefeated teams, as those old school brown and yellow unis that everyone seems to hate continue to keep Denver going strong. The Broncos knocked off division rivals San Diego to maintain their surprising run. I watched most of the first half and what stood out most was Denver's Eddie Royal, who returned a kickoff for a 93-yard touchdown in the first quarter as well as a punt for a 71-yard touchdown. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense were looking good in the first half, but those missteps on special teams ended up costing them the game.

What do you gotta say about the Broncos now, 'stache? I thought they were going to be the worst team in the NFL. I'm sure you'll be able to call me out on my NBA season predictions, so I should probably keep quiet.

NFL 2009 preview - AFC

Just what you need. Another season preview!

I have to post these now, a week before the regular season begins, so we can either look back at how much of a genius I was, or (more likely) make fun of me for wasting my time with a ridiculously incorrect outlook. To that end, I will predict the playoff teams, but not actual playoff results. I'll do that come January, so in February we can either praise me as a football-savant, or (more likely) make fun of me!

So let's begin:

West

This is as good a place to start as any. The Chargers have locked up this division for several straight years, and given how bad the Raiders and Chiefs have been for a while, the Chargers are virtual locks to repeat. Denver was within one game of winning the division last year, but a late season meltdown (and that's being kind) and a rookie head coach have led to a disastrous offseason. They lost their Pro Bowl quarterback and will probably lose their leading receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos were the worst team in football this year. Yes, worse than the Lions.

I have the Raiders in second, largely because they will win games in a weak division and have the talent to take a few surprise games here and there. The new regime in Kansas City is more promising than in Denver, but the turnaround is very unlikely to happen quickly.

South

This is a tough division to predict. For years it has been dominated by the Colts until the Titans burst through with the best record in football. The Jaguars were pegged as the hot team last season, but collapsed almost immediately after a solid postseason to tend their 2007 campaign. The Texans keep going 8-8.

While I don't think the Titans will have the best record in football again, and although they lost star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, I think they still have the pieces in place to repeat a division crown. I think Houston is poised for a decent year, and are possible rising stars. A wild card berth seems possible. I'm sure I'll regret this prediction, but this will be the first year the Colts don't go to the playoffs in a long time, although they may still post a 9-7 record. I find it unlikely that Jacksonville can find their stride in such a tough division.

North

Yeah that's right. I put the defending Superbowl champs at third in their own division. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a ton last year, and their relatively poor offensive line wasn't fortified with any notable free agents or draft picks. It seems likely he could go down this season. The Ravens will meanwhile continue to have a serviceable offense while maintaining a top notch defense, despite losing Terrel Suggs.

Cincinnati appears on the rise after a solid offseason. If Carson Palmer stays healthy a wild card berth seems within reach so long as they can win divisional games. The Browns will be one of the bottom three teams in football. Not only is their new coach, Eric Mangini, not a very good coach, but he is stepping into one of the worst rosters in football. Ten days out from the start of his season and he hasn't named a starting quarterback!

East

It's almost impossible to imagine the Patriots not winning this division. Without Tom Brady last season they still hit 11-5, and if it weren't for a tie-breaker with the even-record Dolphins they would have won the division. It is doubtful that they'll have another perfect regular season, but on paper this team is just as good. Meanwhile, Miami will take a step backward, probably ending the season around .500.

Elsewhere, the Jets are in rebuilding mode, and will probably have a long season ahead of them. Buffalo I think could be an exciting team, and while I don't neccesarily think that they'll be playoff contenders, I do think end the season with a winning record.

Playoff Picture