AFC East Preview

Number four of Mustache's season preview, winding down the AFC in its Eastern division. This is clearly a three team race, with Buffalo down and out in an otherwise very strong division. The Patriots have the rings, the Jets have the defense and the Dolphins have a talented young quarterback and a very solid nucleus of young playmakers. This division will almost certainly yield two playoff berths.

Division Winner: Miami Dolphins

This is the underdog team of the East's big three, but ultimately that's why I think they'll succeed. Despite a serious rash of offseason arrests, the Dolphins have had back-to-back-to-back solid drafts under the guidance of Bill Parcels and made all the right moves in free agency this season. This is as balanced a team as you're likely to find, including back-up quarterback - the Dolphins are the only team in division, if not conference, that have a solid back up QB in former Jets and Dolphins starter Chad Pennington. Finishing third in their division last season, Miami has the softest schedule of the big three too. This will be a close race, but I think the Dolphins steal back the division with eleven wins.

Division Runner-Up: New York Jets

The Jets won nine regular season games and two playoff games last year on the strength of the league's best defense and a top-notch running game. And all with an error-prone rookie quarterback, Mark Sanchez. If he improves much at all this season the Jets should be back in the postseason. It's hard to imagine the defense will deteriorate much if any next season after such a dominate showing throughout last season. The Jets really only lost when Sanchez made too many mistakes. Through injury the team found its running back of the future in Shonn Greene. The only thing working against New York is free agency - they spent a lot of money on a lot of players who are supposedly post their primes. If even half of these guys can prove their skeptics wrong, New York is headed for at least ten wins and a very close race with the Dolphins

Division Third Place: New England Patriots

The Patriots just can't stay good forever, and I'm boldly predicting they miss the playoffs this season. Although they still have Tom Brady at QB, their defense has slowly fallen apart over the last few seasons and no longer resembles a Bill Belichick squad. While this team is still some ways off from being outright bad, like the Browns or Bills, one just gets the feeling that for the first time in a long time things aren't the way they have been in Bean Town. After watching the Ravens dismantle New England in last year's wildcard game in Foxborough, I can't give this team more than nine wins, and I'm actually only going to predict eight. Wishfull thinking? Maybe.

Division Basement: Buffalo Bills

If the Bills do any better than last place in the Eastern division, it will be a miracle. Their new coach, Chan Gailey, might have inherited the most helpless and talentless roster in the NFL this year. And I wouldn't say their draft converted any non-believers. Buffalo has the worst quarterback situation and possibly the worst offensive line in all of football. I haven't yet seen a prediction for Buffalo of even seven wins. And I'm only going to give them four. Nobody would be surprised if the Bills won the fewest games in the league this season.

**********

Other AFC previews:

West
South
North

Playoff Stretch Preview

I meant to post this before this weekend's crop of games, but oh well:

That's right folks. It's time to start talking about the NFL playoff picture. I've drawn up a neat little chart of how I think the post season will shake down, right up to the Saints-Bengals superbowl!
Seeding is really important to any sports postseason, and the NFL is no exception. I see the current top seeds of both conferences staying put. It's very hard to imagine the undefeated Saints and Colts not capturing the top spots. A one-loss Vikings team looks to have a lock on the second spot in the NFC, while a 7-2 Bengals should coast through the remaining easy schedule to nail down the number two spot in the AFC. Even after an unexpected Raiders loss, I still think the Bengals will win nearly all of their remaining games. These four teams will be rewarded with a first round bye.

In the AFC East, it's pretty clear that the Patriots will run away with the division. The race was even in the AFC West, but the Broncos are on a serious decline after an unthinkable 6-0 start, and the Chargers have slowly but surely gained momentum and taken control of the division.

The wild card spots are quite interesting in the AFC, however, with at least 5 teams in hot contention for the last two playoff spots. I've kept the Ravens and Steelers out of the playoff picture because they have two meetings left this season. So they'll probably beat each other out of the race, while a "little-engine-that-could" Dolphins team that has lost three of its starters but has gotten better, and a pretty good Texans team will sneak in. The Broncos and possibly the Jaguars will join the Steelers and Ravens as teams just barely missing the post-season in the AFC.

In the NFC, the Cardinals have practically already won the West notwithstanding an extreme last season comeback by the initially dominant 49ers. The East is usually the Division to beat in the NFC, but this year the top three teams look wobbly. I see Philly bouncing back to win the division, the Cowboys season crashing late, and the Giants reemerging with a late season playoff berth in the 6th spot. The Falcons possibly have the easiest path to a wildcard in the NFC, and I think they'll get the 5th spot over the Giants.

Outside of the Bengals and Saints taking it all the way to the Superbowl, the Chargers will win a few January games, as will the Eagles. The only other wins I forecast are divisional round victories by the Patriots and Giants.

So there you have it, Dank-Game.

Until this looks ridiculous in 3 weeks and I redo it.

Week 8 NFL Observations

Another week in the NFL, and we know a little more about what to expect from here on out. Several teams who looked like post season locks a few weeks ago have fallen off, while others continue to dominate. And their are a handful of teams that just might be able to claw their way into the playoffs after a slow start. There's a lot of exciting football left this season.

No one is more exciting than the New Orleans Saints. Their Monday night game contained probably more errors than they've made all seasons against a good Falcons team. I have to think that this team would be nearly impossible to beat in a playoff situation, and as they'll likely have home field advantage throughout the playoffs that goes double.

The Colts are less exciting, but that's probably just because they win 12+ games every season. Regardless, Indianapolis is the only other undefeated team in the NFL, and they will look to make it deep into the playoffs for the first time since their Superbowl win. The Patriots, who have really hit their stride midseason, are still on both teams' schedules. Get excited.

Two long-shot teams that will be interesting to watch for the rest of the season are the Miami Dolphins and the Houston Texans. After losing their starting quarterback for the season, Miami swept a Jets team that started the season 3-0. The Texans have shaken off a poor start to emerge with a 5-3 record, and an excellent shot at the franchises first ever post season berth.

Elsewhere, it will likely be a photo finish between two inconsistent teams in the NFC-West - the Cardinals and 49ers. The AFC-North, NFC-East, and NFC-North each have three teams above .500, and only the NFC-North has a clear leader thus far.

Next week I will re-evaluate my playoff picks for the midseason mark (although two teams will have played 9 of their games. Don't blame me, I don't do the scheduling for the NFL). I imagine I'll take the Titans and Panthers out of the hunt! Reluctantly, I may have to add Pittsburgh.

Week 5 NFL Observations

Starting with the last game first, here's Mustache's observations (stachvations? mustavations? I'll work on this) from week 5 in the NFL:

The Dolphins are back. Written off after a 3 game losing streak to start the season, it looked like Miami was in a division where the Jets and Patriots would distance themselves easily from the bottom of the pack. But after back-to-back Jets and Patriots losses and back-to-back division wins for the Fins, the pecking order has changed a little bit. But not for Buffalo. They lost to the Browns in a game where their quarterback only completed two passes.

I am probably most surprised by Jacksonville's blowout loss to the Seahawks. Seattle has been mediocre at best this season, and the Jaguars looked like a team that could turn it around after a poor start. If the Jaguars are going to be a contender this season they have to win games like this, not lose by 41 points. After a few seasons of being the best division in the AFC, the South looks terrible. After the undefeated Colts, the remaining three teams have a combined 4-11 record.

McNabb is back in Philadelphia, and I'll be damned if the Eagles don't look like a top 5 team again. The Eagle's young receivers look excellent, and McNabb threw two incredible touchdown passes. This is probably the best team to have lost a game (sorry Bengals).

Other notables:

Indianapolis, the New York Giants and Minnesota continue to look excellent, all winning in convincing fashion.

Pittsburgh had some trouble with Detroit and Dallas had a lot of trouble with Kansas City. Both did pull out wins, but these teams are not as good as many think, especially not the Cowboys.

NFL 2009 preview - AFC

Just what you need. Another season preview!

I have to post these now, a week before the regular season begins, so we can either look back at how much of a genius I was, or (more likely) make fun of me for wasting my time with a ridiculously incorrect outlook. To that end, I will predict the playoff teams, but not actual playoff results. I'll do that come January, so in February we can either praise me as a football-savant, or (more likely) make fun of me!

So let's begin:

West

This is as good a place to start as any. The Chargers have locked up this division for several straight years, and given how bad the Raiders and Chiefs have been for a while, the Chargers are virtual locks to repeat. Denver was within one game of winning the division last year, but a late season meltdown (and that's being kind) and a rookie head coach have led to a disastrous offseason. They lost their Pro Bowl quarterback and will probably lose their leading receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos were the worst team in football this year. Yes, worse than the Lions.

I have the Raiders in second, largely because they will win games in a weak division and have the talent to take a few surprise games here and there. The new regime in Kansas City is more promising than in Denver, but the turnaround is very unlikely to happen quickly.

South

This is a tough division to predict. For years it has been dominated by the Colts until the Titans burst through with the best record in football. The Jaguars were pegged as the hot team last season, but collapsed almost immediately after a solid postseason to tend their 2007 campaign. The Texans keep going 8-8.

While I don't think the Titans will have the best record in football again, and although they lost star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, I think they still have the pieces in place to repeat a division crown. I think Houston is poised for a decent year, and are possible rising stars. A wild card berth seems possible. I'm sure I'll regret this prediction, but this will be the first year the Colts don't go to the playoffs in a long time, although they may still post a 9-7 record. I find it unlikely that Jacksonville can find their stride in such a tough division.

North

Yeah that's right. I put the defending Superbowl champs at third in their own division. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a ton last year, and their relatively poor offensive line wasn't fortified with any notable free agents or draft picks. It seems likely he could go down this season. The Ravens will meanwhile continue to have a serviceable offense while maintaining a top notch defense, despite losing Terrel Suggs.

Cincinnati appears on the rise after a solid offseason. If Carson Palmer stays healthy a wild card berth seems within reach so long as they can win divisional games. The Browns will be one of the bottom three teams in football. Not only is their new coach, Eric Mangini, not a very good coach, but he is stepping into one of the worst rosters in football. Ten days out from the start of his season and he hasn't named a starting quarterback!

East

It's almost impossible to imagine the Patriots not winning this division. Without Tom Brady last season they still hit 11-5, and if it weren't for a tie-breaker with the even-record Dolphins they would have won the division. It is doubtful that they'll have another perfect regular season, but on paper this team is just as good. Meanwhile, Miami will take a step backward, probably ending the season around .500.

Elsewhere, the Jets are in rebuilding mode, and will probably have a long season ahead of them. Buffalo I think could be an exciting team, and while I don't neccesarily think that they'll be playoff contenders, I do think end the season with a winning record.

Playoff Picture