2011 NFL Gambling Guide

What is the steal of the 2010 Gambling season?

Bodog Sports, a Vegas sports gambling outlet, is giving the Cincinnati Bengals 30/1 odds of winning the next Superbowl!  Can you even imagine the payoff when the Bengals cross the NFL finish line in first place.  Guys, you could turn $100 into $3,000 or $100,000 into $3,000,000.

Take it from me, and my surprisingly slightly-more-than-half right 2009 NFL predictions.  Let's review!

First I picked the playoff teams for the AFC teams.  And oh boy did I nail four of the six playoff teams!  I missed the Colts as the top seed - I thought the loss of Tony Dungy and some of the rest of their coaching staff might actually disrupt the continuity Peyton Manning has enjoyed since coming into the league.  My theory finally paid off when the Colts lost the Superbowl . . .

I thought the Titans would would have a great in place of the Colts.  And they did, but only after losing the first 6 games and replacing their starting quarterback.  I feel I should get a mulligan on that one.  Same with the Texans, one of my wildcard picks, who came damn to close to the post season.  They posted the same record as the 5th seed Ravens and 6th seed Jets, but lost in tiebreakers.

So let's talk about the Ravens.  I totally had both them and the Bengals in postseason, but I flip-flopped the division winner and wildcard team.  Being only a game off, I feel pretty justified here.

Lastly, I had the Chargers and Patriots winning their divisions.  Like everyone else.

I did nearly as well in the NFC playoff predictions.  The Vikings unsurprisingly cruised to a second straight division title.  I expected the Bears to best the Packers for a wildcard spot, but I failed to realize how poor Chicago's coaches were.  And now they're mostly fired.

I picked the Eagles for a much better season than they had, but the did make the playoffs.  I'm still not sure how the Cowboys managed to be a playoff team and beat Philadelphia three times in one season.

Elsewhere I picked the 49ers and Panthers for big seasons.  Although neither did horrendously, they did miss the playoffs.  At least San Francisco kept the NFC-West interesting.

Most happily of all though, I had the Saints making the playoffs and going on a long postseason run from the beginning.  Geaux Saints!

So take it from me gambling aficionados.  A guy who's right 58% of the time

AFC North Championship ≠ Respect

wtf?

Two days after the Bengals clinched the AFC North crown and were awarded their first prime-time game of the season, the Pro Bowl ballots were released.

So the Bengals were going to get a few guys in there right? I mean, Cedric Benson missed a few games but his numbers are still great, so he'll at least be the third running back, right?

Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall are the only pair of corners in the league with 6 INTs each, and both rank in the top 10 in passes defensed. So at least one of them is in right?

Cases could also be made for Dhani Jones, who leads the team with the number four overall defense in tackles, Domata Peko, interior defensive linesman for the number two run defense and Bobbie Williams, Cincinnati's best offensive lineman. Even Ochocinco should be in the conversation with a nine TD season.

But instead not a goddamn one of them made it. Every team in the AFC excepting Kansas City and Cincinnati is sending at least one player.

I have to hope this serves as inspiration for the Bengals heading into the playoffs. It actually fits coach Marvin Lewis' mantra of "Fight Back" quite well.

Lions Loss Leaps Bengals to winning season

For the first time since 2005, and only the second time since 1991 (this goddamn team) the Bengals will finish with a winning record.

Beating the Detroit Lions isn't much of an accomplishment, but the game is still riddled with meaning for Cincinnati.

For starters, Marvin Lewis tied franchise founder Paul Brown for 2nd most wins by a coach in club history. As noted above, it also guarantees them a winning season, with their record now notched at 9-3 - tied for second best in the AFC. We also saw the successful return of running back Cedric Benson, and first round pick offensive tackle Andre Smith got playing time for his second NFL game.

Furthermore, with Pittsburgh losing to Oakland and Baltimore possibly losing to Green Bay tonight, only one more win may be necessary to ensure an AFC North crown for the Bengals.

However, this game was boring! The first half was kind of exciting, but the second was slow and painful. Detroit's offense looked terrible after starting the game strong, and the Bengals probably could have posted about 14 more points had it not been for needless interceptions from Carson Palmer. On the plus side, I didn't mind watching the Bengals defense pound quarterback Matt Stafford into the ground repeatedly - welcome to the Jungle indeed.

So I am going to celebrate Brian Leonard for his 100th leap over a defender (unofficial stat). WhoDeyRevolution call him the "White Weapon," a nickname that absolutely needs to catch on. He only gets two or three carries per game, but he makes them count. If you Google Image Search the guy, at least a third of the pictures are of him leaping over would-be tacklers - a trend that dates back to at least his Rutgers days.

So the unnofficial Dank-Game player of the week is Brian Leonard, with Chad "taking the Black Mexican thing really seriously" Ochocinco a close second.

Important AFC North update

Who won today?

Who's 4-1?

Who's first in the AFC North?

Who dey?

Cincinnati Bengals!





1. Cincinnati Bengals 4-1-0
2. Baltimore Ravens 3-2-0
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2-0
4. Cleveland Browns 1-4-0

Week 4 NFL Observations

We're a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and I think it's time to analyze my season predictions:

AFC

NFC

First, in the Bengals' AFC-N, I am dead on so far. Although the Bengals and Ravens are tied for first place, I basically got it right. I must say that the middle of the season gives me cause for concern. The Bengals have a tough slate coming up, against the Ravens twice, Texans and Bears at home, and Pittsburgh on the road. It may be tough to emerge with a winning record, while Pittsburgh has some serious softballs in Detroit and Cleveland. As the Bengals end of season slate is fairly soft, so long as they emerge within playoff contention I think they can make it. I don't expect the Browns to win more than a couple games, and I don't think the Ravens will lose more than a few.

I was also pretty dead on the NFC-W. San Francisco is clearly the class of the division right now, and with pretty bad teams in St. Louis and Seattle, Arizona should at least find their way to second place.

I'm killing it the NFC-N too. Minnesota remains undefeated, and after a very poor week one showing, Chicago looks like a playoff contender. Green Bay looks improved, except for their offensive line, but I think even a 9-7 season could lead them to 3rd place in the division. My prediction that the Lions would win at least one game came true. Maybe they'll win a second against Pittsburgh?

It's too early to call in the NFC-E, but the two teams I put on top - Philadelphia and New York - are clearly better than Dallas and Washington. The Redskins look pretty bad though, so they might not manage to best the Cowboys in the division, and it looks like the Giants may be a hair better than the Eagles after all.

Actually, I'm doing pretty well in the NFC. In the South, I was wrong about the Panthers, but the Saints are clearly on their way to winning the division, and the Buccaneers are clearly on their way to last place. I don't know what's wrong with the Panthers, but it remains possible for them to pull out of a 0-3 funk.

In the rest of the AFC, I made some mistakes. The biggest were in the AFC-S. I put the Titans on top and the Colts at third. Well, the Colts look like one of the 3 best teams in football, and the Titans are amazingly 0-4, most recently losing to a Jaguars team that most (myself included) had written off. Well, now the Jags and Texans are 2-2, so both could make mid season runs at playoff berths, while the Titans are basically already done for the year, a year after having the best record in football. Strange.

The AFC-W features the single biggest surprise for me - an undefeated Broncos team. I still think the Chargers can come roaring back for the division crown, just like they did last year. And I'm not too surprised that Kansas City and Oakland aren't very good. The main surprise is that the Chargers are actually facing competition to win this division.

Last, the AFC-E threw me off as well. The Jets are tied for first with a re-emerging New England team. Buffalo and Miami both look mediocre, so I expect this dynamic to play out for the rest of the year. The big question is whether both the Jets and Pats can make the playoffs. I'd be pretty thrilled if the Patriots don't.

If I'm still looking decent, I might revisit these again at the season's mid point.

NFL 2009 preview - AFC

Just what you need. Another season preview!

I have to post these now, a week before the regular season begins, so we can either look back at how much of a genius I was, or (more likely) make fun of me for wasting my time with a ridiculously incorrect outlook. To that end, I will predict the playoff teams, but not actual playoff results. I'll do that come January, so in February we can either praise me as a football-savant, or (more likely) make fun of me!

So let's begin:

West

This is as good a place to start as any. The Chargers have locked up this division for several straight years, and given how bad the Raiders and Chiefs have been for a while, the Chargers are virtual locks to repeat. Denver was within one game of winning the division last year, but a late season meltdown (and that's being kind) and a rookie head coach have led to a disastrous offseason. They lost their Pro Bowl quarterback and will probably lose their leading receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos were the worst team in football this year. Yes, worse than the Lions.

I have the Raiders in second, largely because they will win games in a weak division and have the talent to take a few surprise games here and there. The new regime in Kansas City is more promising than in Denver, but the turnaround is very unlikely to happen quickly.

South

This is a tough division to predict. For years it has been dominated by the Colts until the Titans burst through with the best record in football. The Jaguars were pegged as the hot team last season, but collapsed almost immediately after a solid postseason to tend their 2007 campaign. The Texans keep going 8-8.

While I don't think the Titans will have the best record in football again, and although they lost star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, I think they still have the pieces in place to repeat a division crown. I think Houston is poised for a decent year, and are possible rising stars. A wild card berth seems possible. I'm sure I'll regret this prediction, but this will be the first year the Colts don't go to the playoffs in a long time, although they may still post a 9-7 record. I find it unlikely that Jacksonville can find their stride in such a tough division.

North

Yeah that's right. I put the defending Superbowl champs at third in their own division. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a ton last year, and their relatively poor offensive line wasn't fortified with any notable free agents or draft picks. It seems likely he could go down this season. The Ravens will meanwhile continue to have a serviceable offense while maintaining a top notch defense, despite losing Terrel Suggs.

Cincinnati appears on the rise after a solid offseason. If Carson Palmer stays healthy a wild card berth seems within reach so long as they can win divisional games. The Browns will be one of the bottom three teams in football. Not only is their new coach, Eric Mangini, not a very good coach, but he is stepping into one of the worst rosters in football. Ten days out from the start of his season and he hasn't named a starting quarterback!

East

It's almost impossible to imagine the Patriots not winning this division. Without Tom Brady last season they still hit 11-5, and if it weren't for a tie-breaker with the even-record Dolphins they would have won the division. It is doubtful that they'll have another perfect regular season, but on paper this team is just as good. Meanwhile, Miami will take a step backward, probably ending the season around .500.

Elsewhere, the Jets are in rebuilding mode, and will probably have a long season ahead of them. Buffalo I think could be an exciting team, and while I don't neccesarily think that they'll be playoff contenders, I do think end the season with a winning record.

Playoff Picture