Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Playoff Picture: Bottom of the West

The Suns are in the midst of a 5-game winning streak and hold the 5th seed in the West, just a game behind the Jazz. They could easily extend their win streak to ten games, as the rest of March is against teams currently out of the playoffs. April could be a tough month for them with games against the Bucks, Spurs, Thunder, Nuggets, and Jazz.

It's definitely possible that the Suns make it out of the first round, but I doubt they can go any further. Despite having the best offense in the league, they're still a lousy defensive team, ranking 22nd in the league. They also rely heavily on their three-point shooting, which will be hard to maintain throughout an entire seven-game series. It will be interesting to see if this team's core remains intact after this season, as their championship window is closing if it's even open at all anymore. Steve Nash is still one of the best point guards in the league at age 36, but I get the feeling he might be moved for younger talent if they're bounced in the first round. As for Amare, who knows what'll happen with him.

Projected Record: 52 - 30
Opponent if Playoffs Started Today: Utah Jazz


The Spurs sit two games behind Phoenix, tied with the Thunder for the 6th seed. They have a rough schedule ahead of them, so the Thunder could squeeze past them. In March, they face the Lakers, Cavs, and Celtics. In April, they have games against the Magic, Lakers, Suns, Nuggets, and Mavs. They also will face the Grizzlies in April, who could be fighting for their playoff lives.

Tony Parker's broken right hand at the beginning of March was a big set back for the Spurs, but they were struggling after the All-Star break even before he went down. George Hill has filled in capably and Ginobili has also taken on some point guard duties in Parker's absence. Parker is expected to return before the end of the regular season, which is good news for San Antonio, but I still have trouble seeing them as a real threat in the playoffs. They just aren't the same team they used to be. They haven't been the same on defense since Bruce Bowen retired, and Richard Jefferson hasn't seemed to fit in their system. They still have Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker though, so you can't count them out.

Projected Record: 49 - 33
Opponent if Playoffs Started Today: Dallas Mavericks


The Thunder are tied with the Spurs for the 6th seed and have a chance to pass them up. They'll have to close the season strong though, as they have a difficult schedule down the stretch. In March, their toughest games will be against the Lakers, Blazers, and Celtics. In April, they'll face the Mavericks, Jazz, Nuggets, Suns, Blazers, and finish the season against the Grizzlies. They'll have to do it largely without injured rookie James Harden, and his beard. The beard is clearly the bigger loss.

Everyone knew the Thunder would eventually be good, but nobody knew they'd be this good this soon... except for Teenage Mustache, of course. Many people have compared this year's Thunder to last year's Blazers, who made the transition from talented bunch of youngsters to playoff threat quicker than expected. Portland went into the playoffs last year with a "nothing to lose" mentality, and were put in their place by Artest and the Rockets in the first round. I think the Thunder will have more of a collective focus than last year's Blazers, but will ultimately have the same fate. They'll need a better bench and a more imposing presence at center than Nenad Krstic before they take that next step. I'll still be watching and hoping they prove me wrong (if they play someone besides the Nuggets).

Projected Record: 50 - 32
Opponent if Playoffs Started Today: Denver Nuggets


The Blazers sit just a game behind the Thunder at the 8th spot, with the Grizzlies four games behind them. I'm going to assume that the Grizz won't sneak in the playoffs, but it ain't over 'til it's over. Portland has a road heavy schedule ahead of them, which isn't a huge concern since they've been decent on the road. In March, their toughest games are against the Mavs and Thunder. They're schedule in April is manageable other than games against the Nuggets, Mavericks, Lakers, and Thunder.

It's been a tough year for Portland, as injuries have taken out several important players. Not long after losing Greg Oden for the year, center Joel Przybilla also had a season ending injury that has forced them to use 37-year old Juwon Howard at center. Not only is Howard old, but he's also not a center. Despite these and other setbacks, Portland has maintained playoff positioning throughout the season. Unfortunately, they'll probably end up getting bounced in the first round yet again at the hands of the Lakers or Nuggets. Even if everyone was healthy, I still think they lack the type of gritty, hard-nosed player you need in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 49 - 33
Opponent if Playoffs Started Today: Los Angeles Lakers

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