Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Playoff Picture: Bottom of the East

The Bucks hold the 5th seed in the East with a relatively comfortable three-game lead over the Heat. Picking up John Salmons at the trade deadline has proved to be a good move, as the Bucks have gone an impressive 16-2 since the trade. This run has included wins against the Cavs (sans LeBron), Celtics, Jazz, Nuggets, and Hawks. I expect the Bucks to win out the rest of their games in March except for the last one against Cleveland. To finish out the season, they'll play the Celtics and Hawks at home, and then the Celtics again in Boston. These games will be very important for Milwaukee, because they'll likely match up with either Boston or Atlanta in the playoffs.

Milwaukee's big turn around this season has been sparked by the inspired play of Australian center Andrew Bogut, dynamic rookie point guard Brandon Jennings, and John Salmons. They have also gotten a surprising amount of production out of Carlos Delfino and Ersan Ilyasova, who played in the Euroleague the past couple of seasons. Much credit is also due to head coach Scott Skiles, who's emphasis on defense has made the Bucks the 4th best defensive team in the league. Their defensive prowess makes them a scary first round opponent, especially because they've been on such a tear lately. You just have to wonder about their offense, which ranks 22nd in the league. I also wonder if Jennings can play consistently enough to win a seven-game series.

Projected Record: 47 - 35
Opponent if Playoffs Started Today: Atlanta Hawks


The Heat hold the 6th seed in the East, but Toronto and Charlotte are both just a game behind. The Heat have a very light schedule to close out the season, but with the way they've played this year, I'd almost prefer them playing contenders instead of sub-.500 teams. They're toughest games are coming up this month against the Bucks and Raptors. In April, they'll exclusively play the worst of the worst in the NBA. Here's to hoping they can capitalize.

I've tried to maintain optimism with this Heat squad all year, but they're inconsistency has made it tough. They have been a streaky team to say the least. While their defense has been encouraging, ranking 8th in the NBA, their offense has been downright atrocious at times, ranking in at 19th out of 30 teams. Because they're one of the slowest paced teams, you would think that they have a moderately formidable half court offense. The truth is they can be painful to watch when trying to run an offense, as their ball movement is usually stagnant at best. I would like to see them get out and run more, for the sake of entertainment and potentially easier buckets. For the Heat to make it out of the first round, I think Quentin Richardson will have to be hitting the three-ball consistently and Jermaine O'Neal will have to be big on both ends of the court. If Michael Beasley can produce that would be an added bonus, but my confidence in the kid is quickly declining. Also, Dwyane Wade will have to be on Jordan-mode throughout the entire series.

Projected Record: 45 - 37
Opponent if Playoffs Started Today: Boston Celtics


The Raptors are tied with the Bobcats for the 7th seed, with the season series currently tied between the two teams. I expect the Bobcats to surpass the Raptors by the end of the season. Toronto's next two games will probably be losses, as they play the Nuggets and Jazz. After that, they have the Heat and Bobcats, which I also think will be losses. Their schedule in April is fairly light besides games against Cleveland, Boston, and Atlanta. This team has been so inconsistent that any game could be a loss, though.

While the Raptors have a high powered offense, good for 5th in the league, they are the absolute worst team on defense. While I haven't actually watched an entire Raptors game this season, I think it's pretty safe to say this team is going nowhere in the playoffs. The Hedo Turkoglu signing is turning out to be a mistake, as he will be making pretty big money for the next four years and his production will probably continue to decrease. Factor in Chris Bosh's possible departure in free agency, and you have a team that could be in shambles for years to come.

Projected Record: 41 - 41
Opponent if Playoffs Started Today: Orlando Magic


The Bobcats are tied with the Raptors for the 7th seed, but I think they'll pass them up. Their schedule in March is light with the Raptors being their toughest out. April is also pretty easy despite games against the Bucks and Hawks. They do have two games against the Bulls in April though, who are just two and a half games back and will be fighting for their chance to make the playoffs. Their games against the Hornets and Rockets are also far from guaranteed wins.

Much like the teams they're battling against for playoff positioning (Heat, Raptors, Bulls), the Bobcats have been very inconsistent this year. With Larry Brown at the helm, the Bobcats have become the second best defensive team in the league, but they rank 22nd offensively. The midseason trade for Stephen Jackson has given them a big boost on offense and has been one of the main reasons they've been able to get into playoff contention. Charlotte will probably end up facing the Cavs or Magic, so expect to see a lot of Michael Jordan sitting in the crowd frowning with his arms crossed. Even if they manage to get Boston in the first round, I just don't think they'll have the offense to win a seven-game series against them.

Projected Record: 43 - 39
Opponent if Playoffs Started Today: Cleveland Cavaliers

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