NFC East Preview

Did I save the best for last? Maybe, as the NFC East is usually one of the best divisions in football. But we've caught two teams from this division in semi- "rebuild" mode and another in "win-now" mode. I can't believe that only the Dallas Cowboys actually look like true contenders in this division, but it's simply been shaken apart since last season. The Giants, especially defensively, have been on a slow decline since winning a Superbowl. The Eagles have handed the reigns to a new starting quarterback, and the Redskins are practically a fantasy football team, but not a particularly good one.

Division Winner: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is the only model of consistency in the division. Quarterback Tony Romo has steadily improved each season under head coach Wade Phillips. And even when his receivers aren't playing to their pay grade, an unknown always seems to pop up and pick up the slack (see: Miles Austin). They also have very good, although aging running backs and a well rounded defense. Coming off a playoff win last year, Dallas looks to compete with New Orleans and Minnesota for a top seed and playoff bye week. I think we'll see eleven wins out of them.

Division Runner-Up: Philadelphia Eagles

This was a tough choice, as each of these three teams have so many question marks, but ultimately Philly has the fewest. New starting quarterback Kevin Kolb did start two games in place of then-injured, now-traded Donovan McNabb and looked pretty good in the process. Plus Michael Vick is still their back-up, so quarterbacking might not truly be a big issue for this team. Plus they've got lot's of young talent at the other offensive skill positions. Their defense hasn't been quite the same since the death of their longtime defensive coordinator before the 2009 season began, but they're no slouches either. The offensive line is aging and somewhat suspect, but that shouldn't stop the Eagles from winning nine games.

Division Third Place: Washington Redskins

When in doubt, take last year's ranking and switch the bottom two teams. At least, that's what I've done in a few of these previews! But the 'Skins really should be much improved this year with a new and proven head coach in Mike Shanahan and trade acquisition Donovan McNabb. This is one of the oldest teams in the league, as they consistently trade away their draft picks for high profile, under-performing free agents like DT Albert Haynesworth. But McNabb is a difference maker, and for years in Philly succeeded with sub-par receiver talent. I sincerely doubt Washington will compete for a playoff spot, but seven wins doesn't seem improbable.

Division Basement: New York Giants

The Giants have really skidded since winning it all a few years ago. Although their wide receiver corps has actually improved greatly with well spent draft picks, the defense has slowly fallen apart. The team knows it too, having changed coordinators. But unless Perry Fewell can get a lot more out a once-fearsome defensive line now in a multi-year slump, New York simply won't be able compete in a tough division in the currently stronger conference. Eli Manning is a decent quarterback, but you can't quite expect this offense to score the twenty-eight points they'll likely need almost every game to win. This is another team I've put in the cellar that could surprise, but I'm predicting six wins and the end of Tom Coughlin's coaching career.

Playoff Stretch Preview

I meant to post this before this weekend's crop of games, but oh well:

That's right folks. It's time to start talking about the NFL playoff picture. I've drawn up a neat little chart of how I think the post season will shake down, right up to the Saints-Bengals superbowl!
Seeding is really important to any sports postseason, and the NFL is no exception. I see the current top seeds of both conferences staying put. It's very hard to imagine the undefeated Saints and Colts not capturing the top spots. A one-loss Vikings team looks to have a lock on the second spot in the NFC, while a 7-2 Bengals should coast through the remaining easy schedule to nail down the number two spot in the AFC. Even after an unexpected Raiders loss, I still think the Bengals will win nearly all of their remaining games. These four teams will be rewarded with a first round bye.

In the AFC East, it's pretty clear that the Patriots will run away with the division. The race was even in the AFC West, but the Broncos are on a serious decline after an unthinkable 6-0 start, and the Chargers have slowly but surely gained momentum and taken control of the division.

The wild card spots are quite interesting in the AFC, however, with at least 5 teams in hot contention for the last two playoff spots. I've kept the Ravens and Steelers out of the playoff picture because they have two meetings left this season. So they'll probably beat each other out of the race, while a "little-engine-that-could" Dolphins team that has lost three of its starters but has gotten better, and a pretty good Texans team will sneak in. The Broncos and possibly the Jaguars will join the Steelers and Ravens as teams just barely missing the post-season in the AFC.

In the NFC, the Cardinals have practically already won the West notwithstanding an extreme last season comeback by the initially dominant 49ers. The East is usually the Division to beat in the NFC, but this year the top three teams look wobbly. I see Philly bouncing back to win the division, the Cowboys season crashing late, and the Giants reemerging with a late season playoff berth in the 6th spot. The Falcons possibly have the easiest path to a wildcard in the NFC, and I think they'll get the 5th spot over the Giants.

Outside of the Bengals and Saints taking it all the way to the Superbowl, the Chargers will win a few January games, as will the Eagles. The only other wins I forecast are divisional round victories by the Patriots and Giants.

So there you have it, Dank-Game.

Until this looks ridiculous in 3 weeks and I redo it.

Slim's Week 6 NFL Observations

Once again, I'm filling in for Teenage Mustache with NFL coverage while he's out havin' fun in the warm California sun.

First up, a bit of good news for us Cincinnatians. While Antwan Odom is out for the season and will udergo surgery for his ruptured Achille's tendon, Domata Peko's knee injury is not serious. His availability for next week's home game against the Bears (which I'll be attending BTW) will be assessed later this week. Also, rookie tackle Andre Smith will return to practice after being sidelined all season from a broken foot suffered in practice.

There were some brutal blowouts on Sunday, most notably the Patriots who destroyed the lowly Titans 59-0 in the midst of New England flurries. The Pats set franchise records for points and yards with 619. Tom Brady also had the most touchdown passes in a quarter by any player since 1950, with five in the second quarter. The Titans are the worst defensive team in the league, and obviously they lived up to their reputation.

The Saints continued to impress, remaining undefeated at 5-0 as they beat the Giants 48-27. It should be noted that the Giants came into the game with the #1 defense in the league. Not sure if they still do after this one, though. After having two straight weeks without a touchdown pass, Drew Brees got back on track with 4 touchdown passes and 369 yards. I have to assume at this point the MVP picture has been narrowed down between Brees and Peyton Manning.

Brett Favre and the Vikings also remain undefeated at 6-0, after narrowly escaping a loss to the Ravens after a last second field goal miss that would have given Baltimore a one point victory had it been good. This gives Minnesota a comfortable lead in the NFC North, with the Packers in second at 3-2.

The Broncos and Colts are the only other remaining undefeated teams, as those old school brown and yellow unis that everyone seems to hate continue to keep Denver going strong. The Broncos knocked off division rivals San Diego to maintain their surprising run. I watched most of the first half and what stood out most was Denver's Eddie Royal, who returned a kickoff for a 93-yard touchdown in the first quarter as well as a punt for a 71-yard touchdown. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense were looking good in the first half, but those missteps on special teams ended up costing them the game.

What do you gotta say about the Broncos now, 'stache? I thought they were going to be the worst team in the NFL. I'm sure you'll be able to call me out on my NBA season predictions, so I should probably keep quiet.

2009 NFL preview - NFC

And in an obvious follow up to yesterday's post, here's Dank Game's NFC season preview that you were so excited about.

West

I see a lot of flux in this division as compared to last year. I do not see Arizona repeating a playoff run, although their offense will likely continue to put up big points. San Francisco is a rising star in a poor division, and just good enough to edge out a Cardinals team that will win few games outside the division.

Seattle dominated this division for years, and lost their own Superbowl to Pittsburgh, but even with the addition of T.J. Houshmenzadeh, the window on this team has likely closed. Meanwhile the Rams, who have been terrible for a couple years now, will just barely edge out Seattle for the number three spot in the division while still falling under .500

South

I see the NFC South getting shaken up as well. I really believe New Orleans has done enough to upgrade their defense to win this division, as tough as it may be. The offense will be as potent as last season, and the Saints will likely run up the score on the NFL's bottom feeders.

Last year's division winner, Carolina will remain in the playoffs, although through the wild card. They will be chased by a good Atlanta team, who will just barely miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, it appears Tampa Bay has collapsed. With a new head coach and still not fully decided starting quarterback situation, Tampa will be in a distant fourth.

North

I didn't make any changes in this division. However, I do think the Bears will make the playoffs this year via the wild card, and Green Bay may very well have a winning record. Detroit to bottom out the division is too painfully obvious to bother explaining.

The Vikings are a hot team this year following the Brett Favre signing. The team is basically the same as the one that won the division last year, but with at least a slightly better quarterback situation. And Chicago will be imporved with Jay Cutler behind center instead of Kyle Orton. And Detroit will win at least one game.

East

I briefly wrestled with the question of whether to put Philadelphia or New York on top of this division. I'm starting to think that much-hyped Eagles are over-hyped and I don't see what the Michael Vick signing really does for them. But they are still a more complete team than the rest of the NFC, and Donovan McNabb is a better quarterback than Eli Manning. New York will be close to a wild card berth, possibly losing out on a tie-breaker scenario.

Most expect Washington to finish the division in last place, but I think they're a better team than advertised. Dallas fans seem to use T.O. as a scapegoat for last seasons playoff miss, but I do not think this team has improved, and see them falling probably a game behind the Redskins.

Playoff Picture