AFC South Preview

For my third of eight NFL division by division previews I'm continuing my tour of the AFC with it's South division. Hosting the Superbowl losing Colts, as well as generally good teams in Tennessee and Houston, this will likely be a close contest. Even perennially underachieving Jacksonville could very well put together a surprisingly good team.

Last year I foolishly picked the Colts to miss the playoffs. And they only won fourteen games and made the Superbowl with a rookie head coach! So I will not bet against the Colts again this year. Like everyone else, I had the 2008 division winning Titans pretty high last year, and their six game losing streak to start last season now appears to have been an aberration. Both Tennessee and Jacksonville have game changing running backs, so it's possible to count them out. And Houston, not Indianapolis, New England or New Orleans, had the top passer in football last year.

Division Winner: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are just going to be good until Peyton Manning isn't on the team anymore. I've come to accept this fact. Usually the team that loses the Superbowl misses the playoffs the following season, but I would be shocked really if the "Superbowl Hangover" afflicted this team that won fourteen games with a rookie head coach. The Colts have probably the worst running game of any contending team, but it rarely seems to matter for them. I wouldn't think they can win as many games again next year in an improved division, but they'll probably still hit twelve wins.

Division Runner-Up: Houston Texans

This team has progressed so slowly since entering the league in 2002 that you'd think you were reading about building an MLB team. But low and behold, the Texans finally posted their first winning season last year on the strength of quarterback Matt Schaub's league best throwing total. They also sported the best defense in the Division last season. Lead tackler (and former USC teammate of Rey Maualuga) linebacker Brian Cushing will be suspended for the beginning of the season, but their defense should at least keep them in position to win games. Like so many others, I'm predicting that the Texans finally make the playoffs this year, probably with ten wins and a wildcard berth.

Division Third Place: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have had a lot of talent and even some postseason appearances over the last several season, but they never do well when the spotlight is on. After a division worst 7-9 record complete with a four game losing streak to end the season, the spotlight is very far off Jacksonville. This will work to their advantage, and as long as they have running back Maurice Jones-Drew they'll have a chance. They also get competent though not inspired quarterback play from David Garrard, and a defense that really could be a lot worse. As the only team in the division making significant draft picks, their defense should be improved with a possibly formidable defensive line. I'll pencil in the Jaguars for eights wins, but wouldn't be surprised if they end up a couple wins north or south of there.

Division Basement: Tennessee Titans

This is probably the ultimate sink-or-swim team in the 2010 football season. Although Chris Johnson is coming off an extremely rare 2,ooo yard rushing performance and quarterback Vince Young showed renewed life after being reinstated into the starting lineup last year, both face a lot of off the field adversity, especially in the form of their contracts. Vince Young is in the last year of his rookie deal and the team is reluctant to put a lot of long term money down on such a hot and cold QB. Chris Johnson set an NFL record for total yards from scrimmage last year and wants to get paid like it. To further complicate matters, their defense was terrible last year, so their performances will have to make up for it. If this team puts it together and Young and Johnson both have another magic season, this could be an eleven win team headed for the playoffs and lucrative contract extensions. Playing the odds however, it seems more likely they're headed to seven wins.

2011 NFL Gambling Guide

What is the steal of the 2010 Gambling season?

Bodog Sports, a Vegas sports gambling outlet, is giving the Cincinnati Bengals 30/1 odds of winning the next Superbowl!  Can you even imagine the payoff when the Bengals cross the NFL finish line in first place.  Guys, you could turn $100 into $3,000 or $100,000 into $3,000,000.

Take it from me, and my surprisingly slightly-more-than-half right 2009 NFL predictions.  Let's review!

First I picked the playoff teams for the AFC teams.  And oh boy did I nail four of the six playoff teams!  I missed the Colts as the top seed - I thought the loss of Tony Dungy and some of the rest of their coaching staff might actually disrupt the continuity Peyton Manning has enjoyed since coming into the league.  My theory finally paid off when the Colts lost the Superbowl . . .

I thought the Titans would would have a great in place of the Colts.  And they did, but only after losing the first 6 games and replacing their starting quarterback.  I feel I should get a mulligan on that one.  Same with the Texans, one of my wildcard picks, who came damn to close to the post season.  They posted the same record as the 5th seed Ravens and 6th seed Jets, but lost in tiebreakers.

So let's talk about the Ravens.  I totally had both them and the Bengals in postseason, but I flip-flopped the division winner and wildcard team.  Being only a game off, I feel pretty justified here.

Lastly, I had the Chargers and Patriots winning their divisions.  Like everyone else.

I did nearly as well in the NFC playoff predictions.  The Vikings unsurprisingly cruised to a second straight division title.  I expected the Bears to best the Packers for a wildcard spot, but I failed to realize how poor Chicago's coaches were.  And now they're mostly fired.

I picked the Eagles for a much better season than they had, but the did make the playoffs.  I'm still not sure how the Cowboys managed to be a playoff team and beat Philadelphia three times in one season.

Elsewhere I picked the 49ers and Panthers for big seasons.  Although neither did horrendously, they did miss the playoffs.  At least San Francisco kept the NFC-West interesting.

Most happily of all though, I had the Saints making the playoffs and going on a long postseason run from the beginning.  Geaux Saints!

So take it from me gambling aficionados.  A guy who's right 58% of the time

Playoff Stretch Preview

I meant to post this before this weekend's crop of games, but oh well:

That's right folks. It's time to start talking about the NFL playoff picture. I've drawn up a neat little chart of how I think the post season will shake down, right up to the Saints-Bengals superbowl!
Seeding is really important to any sports postseason, and the NFL is no exception. I see the current top seeds of both conferences staying put. It's very hard to imagine the undefeated Saints and Colts not capturing the top spots. A one-loss Vikings team looks to have a lock on the second spot in the NFC, while a 7-2 Bengals should coast through the remaining easy schedule to nail down the number two spot in the AFC. Even after an unexpected Raiders loss, I still think the Bengals will win nearly all of their remaining games. These four teams will be rewarded with a first round bye.

In the AFC East, it's pretty clear that the Patriots will run away with the division. The race was even in the AFC West, but the Broncos are on a serious decline after an unthinkable 6-0 start, and the Chargers have slowly but surely gained momentum and taken control of the division.

The wild card spots are quite interesting in the AFC, however, with at least 5 teams in hot contention for the last two playoff spots. I've kept the Ravens and Steelers out of the playoff picture because they have two meetings left this season. So they'll probably beat each other out of the race, while a "little-engine-that-could" Dolphins team that has lost three of its starters but has gotten better, and a pretty good Texans team will sneak in. The Broncos and possibly the Jaguars will join the Steelers and Ravens as teams just barely missing the post-season in the AFC.

In the NFC, the Cardinals have practically already won the West notwithstanding an extreme last season comeback by the initially dominant 49ers. The East is usually the Division to beat in the NFC, but this year the top three teams look wobbly. I see Philly bouncing back to win the division, the Cowboys season crashing late, and the Giants reemerging with a late season playoff berth in the 6th spot. The Falcons possibly have the easiest path to a wildcard in the NFC, and I think they'll get the 5th spot over the Giants.

Outside of the Bengals and Saints taking it all the way to the Superbowl, the Chargers will win a few January games, as will the Eagles. The only other wins I forecast are divisional round victories by the Patriots and Giants.

So there you have it, Dank-Game.

Until this looks ridiculous in 3 weeks and I redo it.

Week 8 NFL Observations

Another week in the NFL, and we know a little more about what to expect from here on out. Several teams who looked like post season locks a few weeks ago have fallen off, while others continue to dominate. And their are a handful of teams that just might be able to claw their way into the playoffs after a slow start. There's a lot of exciting football left this season.

No one is more exciting than the New Orleans Saints. Their Monday night game contained probably more errors than they've made all seasons against a good Falcons team. I have to think that this team would be nearly impossible to beat in a playoff situation, and as they'll likely have home field advantage throughout the playoffs that goes double.

The Colts are less exciting, but that's probably just because they win 12+ games every season. Regardless, Indianapolis is the only other undefeated team in the NFL, and they will look to make it deep into the playoffs for the first time since their Superbowl win. The Patriots, who have really hit their stride midseason, are still on both teams' schedules. Get excited.

Two long-shot teams that will be interesting to watch for the rest of the season are the Miami Dolphins and the Houston Texans. After losing their starting quarterback for the season, Miami swept a Jets team that started the season 3-0. The Texans have shaken off a poor start to emerge with a 5-3 record, and an excellent shot at the franchises first ever post season berth.

Elsewhere, it will likely be a photo finish between two inconsistent teams in the NFC-West - the Cardinals and 49ers. The AFC-North, NFC-East, and NFC-North each have three teams above .500, and only the NFC-North has a clear leader thus far.

Next week I will re-evaluate my playoff picks for the midseason mark (although two teams will have played 9 of their games. Don't blame me, I don't do the scheduling for the NFL). I imagine I'll take the Titans and Panthers out of the hunt! Reluctantly, I may have to add Pittsburgh.

NFL 2009 preview - AFC

Just what you need. Another season preview!

I have to post these now, a week before the regular season begins, so we can either look back at how much of a genius I was, or (more likely) make fun of me for wasting my time with a ridiculously incorrect outlook. To that end, I will predict the playoff teams, but not actual playoff results. I'll do that come January, so in February we can either praise me as a football-savant, or (more likely) make fun of me!

So let's begin:

West

This is as good a place to start as any. The Chargers have locked up this division for several straight years, and given how bad the Raiders and Chiefs have been for a while, the Chargers are virtual locks to repeat. Denver was within one game of winning the division last year, but a late season meltdown (and that's being kind) and a rookie head coach have led to a disastrous offseason. They lost their Pro Bowl quarterback and will probably lose their leading receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos were the worst team in football this year. Yes, worse than the Lions.

I have the Raiders in second, largely because they will win games in a weak division and have the talent to take a few surprise games here and there. The new regime in Kansas City is more promising than in Denver, but the turnaround is very unlikely to happen quickly.

South

This is a tough division to predict. For years it has been dominated by the Colts until the Titans burst through with the best record in football. The Jaguars were pegged as the hot team last season, but collapsed almost immediately after a solid postseason to tend their 2007 campaign. The Texans keep going 8-8.

While I don't think the Titans will have the best record in football again, and although they lost star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, I think they still have the pieces in place to repeat a division crown. I think Houston is poised for a decent year, and are possible rising stars. A wild card berth seems possible. I'm sure I'll regret this prediction, but this will be the first year the Colts don't go to the playoffs in a long time, although they may still post a 9-7 record. I find it unlikely that Jacksonville can find their stride in such a tough division.

North

Yeah that's right. I put the defending Superbowl champs at third in their own division. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a ton last year, and their relatively poor offensive line wasn't fortified with any notable free agents or draft picks. It seems likely he could go down this season. The Ravens will meanwhile continue to have a serviceable offense while maintaining a top notch defense, despite losing Terrel Suggs.

Cincinnati appears on the rise after a solid offseason. If Carson Palmer stays healthy a wild card berth seems within reach so long as they can win divisional games. The Browns will be one of the bottom three teams in football. Not only is their new coach, Eric Mangini, not a very good coach, but he is stepping into one of the worst rosters in football. Ten days out from the start of his season and he hasn't named a starting quarterback!

East

It's almost impossible to imagine the Patriots not winning this division. Without Tom Brady last season they still hit 11-5, and if it weren't for a tie-breaker with the even-record Dolphins they would have won the division. It is doubtful that they'll have another perfect regular season, but on paper this team is just as good. Meanwhile, Miami will take a step backward, probably ending the season around .500.

Elsewhere, the Jets are in rebuilding mode, and will probably have a long season ahead of them. Buffalo I think could be an exciting team, and while I don't neccesarily think that they'll be playoff contenders, I do think end the season with a winning record.

Playoff Picture