Let the Speculation Commence - AFC West Preview

I've already half- (but only half!) jokingly picked the Bengals as 2010 NFL champions. But since this part of the NFL calendar is exceptionally slow, I've decided to go ahead and start division by division previews. For no particular reason, I'm starting in the AFC West.

Last year the Broncos unexpectedly pulled to the front of the division with a 6-0 start. They more or less proved that streak to be a fluke when they won only two games the entire rest of the season. The Chargers have held the AFC West for several years now, with the last Division champion being a very different Broncos team in 2005. And with Kansas City in the middle (or possibly even beginning) of what looks to be a lengthy rebuilding project and the Oakland Raiders still being owned by "Count" Al Davis, it will be an uphill climb for anyone to unseat San Diego.

Division Winner: San Diego Chargers

Unless quarterback Phillip Rivers goes down, the Chargers will win the AFC West for a fifth straight year. They have arguably been on a slow decline since their stunning 14-2 2006 season, but not nearly slow enough for the rest of the weak division to catch up. Their defense might not be elite, but when the offense routinely scores thirty points per game it doesn't need to be. They took a running back in the first round as their projected starter, and he'll be put in a good situation. Ten wins should be enough to take the division, but I wouldn't be surprised if they hit eleven or twelve.

Division Runner-Up: Oakland Raiders

I'm not sure any team in football has done more to improve their roster this offseason than Oakland. And a big chunk of that improvement was just giving up on former first overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell. Replacing that quarterback will be former Redskins starter Jason Campbell, who unlike Russell has actually proved why people keep saying he has potential. I think the move will benefit both the franchise and Campbell and the Raiders may actually prove competitive this year. A wild-card berth still seems pretty unlikely though; Raiders fans should be happy to hit seven or eight wins.

Division Third Place: Denver Broncos

I still don't believe Josh McDaniels is a good head coach. After he somehow pulled together an excellent first half-season with somewhat mediocre talent last year, the team tanked big time to end the season. And then they drafted Tim Tebow - in the first round. Tebow will probably take several years to develop, if indeed he ever does and with a team that proved somehow able to win now, why not let Kyle Orton continue quarterbacking and get a player that can come in a contribute right away. Had the Broncos approached their draft and free agency differently I easily could have placed them second making a run at first. Instead I expect about six or seven wins.

Division Basement: Kansas City Chiefs

This team wisely has a serious youth movement going on. No one thought the shell of the once mighty early aughts Chiefs team was going anywhere fast, so they surrounded their young quarterback with young talent to develop. It will take a few more years for Kansas City to make any real noise, but they're probably only a season or two away from getting out of the division cellar. If the Browns managed to win five games last year, the Chiefs should be able to replicate the feat in 2010.

NFL 2009 preview - AFC

Just what you need. Another season preview!

I have to post these now, a week before the regular season begins, so we can either look back at how much of a genius I was, or (more likely) make fun of me for wasting my time with a ridiculously incorrect outlook. To that end, I will predict the playoff teams, but not actual playoff results. I'll do that come January, so in February we can either praise me as a football-savant, or (more likely) make fun of me!

So let's begin:

West

This is as good a place to start as any. The Chargers have locked up this division for several straight years, and given how bad the Raiders and Chiefs have been for a while, the Chargers are virtual locks to repeat. Denver was within one game of winning the division last year, but a late season meltdown (and that's being kind) and a rookie head coach have led to a disastrous offseason. They lost their Pro Bowl quarterback and will probably lose their leading receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos were the worst team in football this year. Yes, worse than the Lions.

I have the Raiders in second, largely because they will win games in a weak division and have the talent to take a few surprise games here and there. The new regime in Kansas City is more promising than in Denver, but the turnaround is very unlikely to happen quickly.

South

This is a tough division to predict. For years it has been dominated by the Colts until the Titans burst through with the best record in football. The Jaguars were pegged as the hot team last season, but collapsed almost immediately after a solid postseason to tend their 2007 campaign. The Texans keep going 8-8.

While I don't think the Titans will have the best record in football again, and although they lost star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, I think they still have the pieces in place to repeat a division crown. I think Houston is poised for a decent year, and are possible rising stars. A wild card berth seems possible. I'm sure I'll regret this prediction, but this will be the first year the Colts don't go to the playoffs in a long time, although they may still post a 9-7 record. I find it unlikely that Jacksonville can find their stride in such a tough division.

North

Yeah that's right. I put the defending Superbowl champs at third in their own division. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a ton last year, and their relatively poor offensive line wasn't fortified with any notable free agents or draft picks. It seems likely he could go down this season. The Ravens will meanwhile continue to have a serviceable offense while maintaining a top notch defense, despite losing Terrel Suggs.

Cincinnati appears on the rise after a solid offseason. If Carson Palmer stays healthy a wild card berth seems within reach so long as they can win divisional games. The Browns will be one of the bottom three teams in football. Not only is their new coach, Eric Mangini, not a very good coach, but he is stepping into one of the worst rosters in football. Ten days out from the start of his season and he hasn't named a starting quarterback!

East

It's almost impossible to imagine the Patriots not winning this division. Without Tom Brady last season they still hit 11-5, and if it weren't for a tie-breaker with the even-record Dolphins they would have won the division. It is doubtful that they'll have another perfect regular season, but on paper this team is just as good. Meanwhile, Miami will take a step backward, probably ending the season around .500.

Elsewhere, the Jets are in rebuilding mode, and will probably have a long season ahead of them. Buffalo I think could be an exciting team, and while I don't neccesarily think that they'll be playoff contenders, I do think end the season with a winning record.

Playoff Picture