NFC North Preview

Six down, two to go! Welcome to Dank Game's NFC North preview. This is one of the most unbalanced divisions in the NFL. The Packers and Vikings are coming off 10+ win seasons and playoff appearances, while the Lions and Bears didn't win 10 games combined last season. While Detroit is slowly digging itself out of the only 0-16 season in NFL history, the Bears are showing a lot of desperation to win now without a lot of real potential to do so. Assuming Favre is still coming back, this division will remain a two way race in 2010.

Division Winner: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are almost certainly an aging team, but the roster is impressive nonetheless. They still have one of the best defenses in the NFC, especially the front seven, and the team's promising young players are the offense's biggest playmakers. Adrian Peterson, despite being outshown by Chris Johnson of Tennessee last season, is still one of the best two or three running backs in the league. Sydney Rice and Percy Harvin are two of the best young receivers in the NFL. Brett Favre is still Brett fucking Favre, and I don't believe his ankle is the issue he's making it out to be (more on that in a future post). Bottom line, this is practically the same team that made it to the NFC Championship game last year. It took them 5 turnovers to lose in a game that somehow remained close. If Favre is back, they very well could be Superbowl bound. I wouldn't expect any less than eleven wins, and I'm predicting twelve.

Division Runner-Up: Green Bay Packers

The Packers are a much better team than I realized last offseason. The team really did have their quarterback of the future in Aaron Rodgers and trading Favre no longer seems like a completely insane decision. Sure it must have hurt Packer fans to watch the Favre-led Vikings sweep them last season, but it's not as if the Packers are total slouches. On the contrary, they'll be the team to beat in the North once Favre and the "Williams Wall" of Minnesota retire. The Packers have few weaknesses, so assuming Rodgers keeps playing at a high level, they should be making a return trip to the playoffs. I'll give them eleven wins.

Division Third Place: Detroit Lions

Hey, I've got to mix something up in this division! After improving from 0-16 to 2-14 last season, I think the Lions are ready to take the next step. They're probably still a couple years or more away from the playoffs, but to even sniff a .500 record would probably make the Detroit faithful happy for now. At any rate, rookie quarterback Matt Stafford was injured some of last season, and played for a team with very little talent. With more competent people now running the organization, they should steadily improve to at least a middle-of-the-pack team. Assuming this year's rookies continue to improve the squad, they'll make a jump to six or seven wins.

Division Basement: Chicago Bears

I might regret this one, but Chicago is not particularly impressive this season. I thought the Cutler addition at quarterback last season would improve the squad, but the problems in Chicago run much deeper than who's playing quarterback. They're ex-QB proved he could actually play in Denver, and they're ex-running back proved he could play in Cincinnati. This tells me coaching is the problem. Head coach Lovie Smith has avoided losing his job for two straight years, but he'll have no excuses this year. In the end, I don't think pressure on the head coach will be enough to make this team any better. They're once formidable defense is now flat, and they didn't have any first or second round draft picks to bring in young talent. The Bears are a sinking ship, and they'll probably win five games.

Week One NFL Observations

It's amazing how set in stone a team's fate seems after week one. Every team that won is playoff bound, and every team that loses is doomed to spend the season drifting further and further away from a playoff berth.

However, this instant optimism and pessimism are misleading. For example, the Chargers started each of the last two years with multiple game losing streaks and yet still made the playoffs. Meanwhile Dallas and Buffalo got out to fast starts last year, but neither ended up playing in January.

So rather than re-evaluate my playoff predictions every freaking week, I'm simply going to speak about trends and observations I see after each weekend of NFL football.

1. The Eagles might be as good as advertised. They destroyed the Panthers at home, a team that did not lose a regular season home game last year. If they have a weak spot, it's that McNabb suffered a broken rib in the shellacking. Vick is still suspended until week three, and Kevin Kolb isn't very good so the Eagles today signed free agent Jeff Garcia. The last time Garcia played for the Eagles he led them to a late season playoff berth, so with Vick in the mix too and McNabb not officially out even for next week, I imagine they'll overcome the setback.

2. The Broncos suck, but the Bengals suck more. At least for now. Clearly a defense that can hold a supposedly offensive minded team to 6 points (plus another total fluke touchdown in the last minute) should win the game. If the Bengals offense can find a rhythm and start scoring some points they could actually turn it around. Meanwhile, if Denver beats Cleveland at home next week (which they easily could), do not expect much more. I still believe this is a clunker team, coming off a win that may also be a clunker team, about to play a team that is definitely a clunker team.

3. Dallas faithful shouldn't start looking toward January yet. They beat Tampa Bay, almost certainly a league bottom-dweller this year. They play the Giants next week, which will be a much, much better test.

4. The bay area can suddenly play football again. San Francisco beating Arizona, in consideration with their strong finish last season after Mike Singletary took over, is strong evidence of a team rounding the corner. Too early to say if they'll compete for a division title, but don't be surprised. Oakland, although losing to San Diego, at least looked good for the first time in recent memory. JaMarcus Russell looked sharper than last season, one of the rookie receivers played decently enough, and the running game was quite formidable. They will likely steal some games from elite teams.

5. Adrian Peterson is amazing. Favre wasn't great, but he didn't make any major mistakes and the Vikings did win the game.

6. Either the Saints are really good this year (especially their offense), or the Lions are still terrible. Likely a combination of the two. I still think the Lions will win at least one game this season, but why not extend the streak for a little while first?

Until next week, or until Ochocinco does something crazy.

2009 NFL preview - NFC

And in an obvious follow up to yesterday's post, here's Dank Game's NFC season preview that you were so excited about.

West

I see a lot of flux in this division as compared to last year. I do not see Arizona repeating a playoff run, although their offense will likely continue to put up big points. San Francisco is a rising star in a poor division, and just good enough to edge out a Cardinals team that will win few games outside the division.

Seattle dominated this division for years, and lost their own Superbowl to Pittsburgh, but even with the addition of T.J. Houshmenzadeh, the window on this team has likely closed. Meanwhile the Rams, who have been terrible for a couple years now, will just barely edge out Seattle for the number three spot in the division while still falling under .500

South

I see the NFC South getting shaken up as well. I really believe New Orleans has done enough to upgrade their defense to win this division, as tough as it may be. The offense will be as potent as last season, and the Saints will likely run up the score on the NFL's bottom feeders.

Last year's division winner, Carolina will remain in the playoffs, although through the wild card. They will be chased by a good Atlanta team, who will just barely miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, it appears Tampa Bay has collapsed. With a new head coach and still not fully decided starting quarterback situation, Tampa will be in a distant fourth.

North

I didn't make any changes in this division. However, I do think the Bears will make the playoffs this year via the wild card, and Green Bay may very well have a winning record. Detroit to bottom out the division is too painfully obvious to bother explaining.

The Vikings are a hot team this year following the Brett Favre signing. The team is basically the same as the one that won the division last year, but with at least a slightly better quarterback situation. And Chicago will be imporved with Jay Cutler behind center instead of Kyle Orton. And Detroit will win at least one game.

East

I briefly wrestled with the question of whether to put Philadelphia or New York on top of this division. I'm starting to think that much-hyped Eagles are over-hyped and I don't see what the Michael Vick signing really does for them. But they are still a more complete team than the rest of the NFC, and Donovan McNabb is a better quarterback than Eli Manning. New York will be close to a wild card berth, possibly losing out on a tie-breaker scenario.

Most expect Washington to finish the division in last place, but I think they're a better team than advertised. Dallas fans seem to use T.O. as a scapegoat for last seasons playoff miss, but I do not think this team has improved, and see them falling probably a game behind the Redskins.

Playoff Picture