Let the Speculation Commence - AFC West Preview

I've already half- (but only half!) jokingly picked the Bengals as 2010 NFL champions. But since this part of the NFL calendar is exceptionally slow, I've decided to go ahead and start division by division previews. For no particular reason, I'm starting in the AFC West.

Last year the Broncos unexpectedly pulled to the front of the division with a 6-0 start. They more or less proved that streak to be a fluke when they won only two games the entire rest of the season. The Chargers have held the AFC West for several years now, with the last Division champion being a very different Broncos team in 2005. And with Kansas City in the middle (or possibly even beginning) of what looks to be a lengthy rebuilding project and the Oakland Raiders still being owned by "Count" Al Davis, it will be an uphill climb for anyone to unseat San Diego.

Division Winner: San Diego Chargers

Unless quarterback Phillip Rivers goes down, the Chargers will win the AFC West for a fifth straight year. They have arguably been on a slow decline since their stunning 14-2 2006 season, but not nearly slow enough for the rest of the weak division to catch up. Their defense might not be elite, but when the offense routinely scores thirty points per game it doesn't need to be. They took a running back in the first round as their projected starter, and he'll be put in a good situation. Ten wins should be enough to take the division, but I wouldn't be surprised if they hit eleven or twelve.

Division Runner-Up: Oakland Raiders

I'm not sure any team in football has done more to improve their roster this offseason than Oakland. And a big chunk of that improvement was just giving up on former first overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell. Replacing that quarterback will be former Redskins starter Jason Campbell, who unlike Russell has actually proved why people keep saying he has potential. I think the move will benefit both the franchise and Campbell and the Raiders may actually prove competitive this year. A wild-card berth still seems pretty unlikely though; Raiders fans should be happy to hit seven or eight wins.

Division Third Place: Denver Broncos

I still don't believe Josh McDaniels is a good head coach. After he somehow pulled together an excellent first half-season with somewhat mediocre talent last year, the team tanked big time to end the season. And then they drafted Tim Tebow - in the first round. Tebow will probably take several years to develop, if indeed he ever does and with a team that proved somehow able to win now, why not let Kyle Orton continue quarterbacking and get a player that can come in a contribute right away. Had the Broncos approached their draft and free agency differently I easily could have placed them second making a run at first. Instead I expect about six or seven wins.

Division Basement: Kansas City Chiefs

This team wisely has a serious youth movement going on. No one thought the shell of the once mighty early aughts Chiefs team was going anywhere fast, so they surrounded their young quarterback with young talent to develop. It will take a few more years for Kansas City to make any real noise, but they're probably only a season or two away from getting out of the division cellar. If the Browns managed to win five games last year, the Chiefs should be able to replicate the feat in 2010.

Slim's Week 6 NFL Observations

Once again, I'm filling in for Teenage Mustache with NFL coverage while he's out havin' fun in the warm California sun.

First up, a bit of good news for us Cincinnatians. While Antwan Odom is out for the season and will udergo surgery for his ruptured Achille's tendon, Domata Peko's knee injury is not serious. His availability for next week's home game against the Bears (which I'll be attending BTW) will be assessed later this week. Also, rookie tackle Andre Smith will return to practice after being sidelined all season from a broken foot suffered in practice.

There were some brutal blowouts on Sunday, most notably the Patriots who destroyed the lowly Titans 59-0 in the midst of New England flurries. The Pats set franchise records for points and yards with 619. Tom Brady also had the most touchdown passes in a quarter by any player since 1950, with five in the second quarter. The Titans are the worst defensive team in the league, and obviously they lived up to their reputation.

The Saints continued to impress, remaining undefeated at 5-0 as they beat the Giants 48-27. It should be noted that the Giants came into the game with the #1 defense in the league. Not sure if they still do after this one, though. After having two straight weeks without a touchdown pass, Drew Brees got back on track with 4 touchdown passes and 369 yards. I have to assume at this point the MVP picture has been narrowed down between Brees and Peyton Manning.

Brett Favre and the Vikings also remain undefeated at 6-0, after narrowly escaping a loss to the Ravens after a last second field goal miss that would have given Baltimore a one point victory had it been good. This gives Minnesota a comfortable lead in the NFC North, with the Packers in second at 3-2.

The Broncos and Colts are the only other remaining undefeated teams, as those old school brown and yellow unis that everyone seems to hate continue to keep Denver going strong. The Broncos knocked off division rivals San Diego to maintain their surprising run. I watched most of the first half and what stood out most was Denver's Eddie Royal, who returned a kickoff for a 93-yard touchdown in the first quarter as well as a punt for a 71-yard touchdown. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense were looking good in the first half, but those missteps on special teams ended up costing them the game.

What do you gotta say about the Broncos now, 'stache? I thought they were going to be the worst team in the NFL. I'm sure you'll be able to call me out on my NBA season predictions, so I should probably keep quiet.

Week 3 NFL Observations

The 'stache is back to fill the void left by a lack of online writing about professional sports.

Week Three was pretty interesting in the NFL, as several of the undefeated and winless teams so far come as a complete surprise. None of these surprises me more than the Carolina Panthers. Losing big to the Cowboys last night, I am wondering where the Panthers that won 12 games last season went. The NFC-South once again has flipped its standings from top to bottom from one year to the next. Excepting the Saints, the whole division looks a little weak.

Speaking of New Orleans, I believe they are the best team in the NFC right now. Even without Drew Brees throwing a touchdown (which will be a very rare occurrence this year), the Saints still handily beat Buffalo. Next week they take on the 3-0 Jets, and this one should be a blockbuster.

That won't be the only great game next week either. As I already wrote extensively about the AFC-North yesterday, I'll just move on.

Ravens at Patriots - This game will go a long way in determining who dominates the AFC this year. The Colts are easily tied as contenders, and it looks as though the Jets are somehow in the conversation.

Cowboys at Broncos - If the Broncos go 4-0, I will be shocked. The Cowboys need this game to keep pace with division rivals Philadelphia and New York.

San Diego at Pittsburgh - The Chargers need to catch up to the Broncos, and the Steelers are already two games out of contention in the AFC-North. These teams usually match up well, so this could be a very close one.

Green Bay at Minnesota - Ignore for a second the Brett-Favre-vs-his-old-team story line, and you'll realize that would have been a great game anyway. A win would suddenly put Green Bay at the top of the division.

'Til next week, Mustache out

Week One NFL Observations

It's amazing how set in stone a team's fate seems after week one. Every team that won is playoff bound, and every team that loses is doomed to spend the season drifting further and further away from a playoff berth.

However, this instant optimism and pessimism are misleading. For example, the Chargers started each of the last two years with multiple game losing streaks and yet still made the playoffs. Meanwhile Dallas and Buffalo got out to fast starts last year, but neither ended up playing in January.

So rather than re-evaluate my playoff predictions every freaking week, I'm simply going to speak about trends and observations I see after each weekend of NFL football.

1. The Eagles might be as good as advertised. They destroyed the Panthers at home, a team that did not lose a regular season home game last year. If they have a weak spot, it's that McNabb suffered a broken rib in the shellacking. Vick is still suspended until week three, and Kevin Kolb isn't very good so the Eagles today signed free agent Jeff Garcia. The last time Garcia played for the Eagles he led them to a late season playoff berth, so with Vick in the mix too and McNabb not officially out even for next week, I imagine they'll overcome the setback.

2. The Broncos suck, but the Bengals suck more. At least for now. Clearly a defense that can hold a supposedly offensive minded team to 6 points (plus another total fluke touchdown in the last minute) should win the game. If the Bengals offense can find a rhythm and start scoring some points they could actually turn it around. Meanwhile, if Denver beats Cleveland at home next week (which they easily could), do not expect much more. I still believe this is a clunker team, coming off a win that may also be a clunker team, about to play a team that is definitely a clunker team.

3. Dallas faithful shouldn't start looking toward January yet. They beat Tampa Bay, almost certainly a league bottom-dweller this year. They play the Giants next week, which will be a much, much better test.

4. The bay area can suddenly play football again. San Francisco beating Arizona, in consideration with their strong finish last season after Mike Singletary took over, is strong evidence of a team rounding the corner. Too early to say if they'll compete for a division title, but don't be surprised. Oakland, although losing to San Diego, at least looked good for the first time in recent memory. JaMarcus Russell looked sharper than last season, one of the rookie receivers played decently enough, and the running game was quite formidable. They will likely steal some games from elite teams.

5. Adrian Peterson is amazing. Favre wasn't great, but he didn't make any major mistakes and the Vikings did win the game.

6. Either the Saints are really good this year (especially their offense), or the Lions are still terrible. Likely a combination of the two. I still think the Lions will win at least one game this season, but why not extend the streak for a little while first?

Until next week, or until Ochocinco does something crazy.

NFL 2009 preview - AFC

Just what you need. Another season preview!

I have to post these now, a week before the regular season begins, so we can either look back at how much of a genius I was, or (more likely) make fun of me for wasting my time with a ridiculously incorrect outlook. To that end, I will predict the playoff teams, but not actual playoff results. I'll do that come January, so in February we can either praise me as a football-savant, or (more likely) make fun of me!

So let's begin:

West

This is as good a place to start as any. The Chargers have locked up this division for several straight years, and given how bad the Raiders and Chiefs have been for a while, the Chargers are virtual locks to repeat. Denver was within one game of winning the division last year, but a late season meltdown (and that's being kind) and a rookie head coach have led to a disastrous offseason. They lost their Pro Bowl quarterback and will probably lose their leading receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos were the worst team in football this year. Yes, worse than the Lions.

I have the Raiders in second, largely because they will win games in a weak division and have the talent to take a few surprise games here and there. The new regime in Kansas City is more promising than in Denver, but the turnaround is very unlikely to happen quickly.

South

This is a tough division to predict. For years it has been dominated by the Colts until the Titans burst through with the best record in football. The Jaguars were pegged as the hot team last season, but collapsed almost immediately after a solid postseason to tend their 2007 campaign. The Texans keep going 8-8.

While I don't think the Titans will have the best record in football again, and although they lost star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, I think they still have the pieces in place to repeat a division crown. I think Houston is poised for a decent year, and are possible rising stars. A wild card berth seems possible. I'm sure I'll regret this prediction, but this will be the first year the Colts don't go to the playoffs in a long time, although they may still post a 9-7 record. I find it unlikely that Jacksonville can find their stride in such a tough division.

North

Yeah that's right. I put the defending Superbowl champs at third in their own division. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a ton last year, and their relatively poor offensive line wasn't fortified with any notable free agents or draft picks. It seems likely he could go down this season. The Ravens will meanwhile continue to have a serviceable offense while maintaining a top notch defense, despite losing Terrel Suggs.

Cincinnati appears on the rise after a solid offseason. If Carson Palmer stays healthy a wild card berth seems within reach so long as they can win divisional games. The Browns will be one of the bottom three teams in football. Not only is their new coach, Eric Mangini, not a very good coach, but he is stepping into one of the worst rosters in football. Ten days out from the start of his season and he hasn't named a starting quarterback!

East

It's almost impossible to imagine the Patriots not winning this division. Without Tom Brady last season they still hit 11-5, and if it weren't for a tie-breaker with the even-record Dolphins they would have won the division. It is doubtful that they'll have another perfect regular season, but on paper this team is just as good. Meanwhile, Miami will take a step backward, probably ending the season around .500.

Elsewhere, the Jets are in rebuilding mode, and will probably have a long season ahead of them. Buffalo I think could be an exciting team, and while I don't neccesarily think that they'll be playoff contenders, I do think end the season with a winning record.

Playoff Picture