Quarterbacking the 2011 Cincinnati Bengals

For obvious reasons, the 2011 Cincinnati Bengals will scantly resemble the 2010 or 2009 Queen City Tigers. For starters, in all likelihood the team will be coached by a man who's name isn't Marvin Lewis for the first time since 2002.

At this point not retaining Lewis is really more of a business decision for owner Mike Brown, suddenly struggling to sell tickets for the first time since the Dick LeBeau era. They have a head-coach-in-waiting in defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer however, and there remains a slim chance Marvin will actually be retained. Outside of these two options only meager speculations exist, which perhaps I'll write a future post about.

What's more fun is the guessing game that is Bengals quarterbacks of the future. Let's review some candidates:

1. Carson Palmer - Carson is due something like $12 million next year, so on the surface it would be a good time for Mike Brown to rid himself of that albatross of a contract. However, even if the Bengals take a rookie QB in the draft, it will still be most sensible to keep Palmer around as the starter for at least a little while. And who knows, having an up and coming fresh QB behind Palmer (i.e. not his younger brother) might even make him better.


2. Trades/Free Agents - Slightly troubled Titans QB Vince Young and either Eagles QBs Kevin Kolb or Mike Vick might very well be available in free agency or trade next season. Redskins QB Donovan McNabb could also be on the outs after only one season in Washington. It's not really Mike Brown's style to actually go after one of these guys, but the possibility is certainly there. The Bengals were the only club besides Philadelphia to offer Vick a contract upon his release from federal prison.


3. The Draft: There are several good, or at least intriguing, college quarterbacks likely entering the draft this year. With the Bengals choosing high in each round, they are likely to be able to land a decent one even in the second round. Stanford's Andrew Luck is widely regarded as the top of the heap. Auburn's Cameron Newton, Washington's Jake Locker and Arkansas's Ryan Mallett are other strong contenders.

The biggest key to any of these candidates succeeding is probably solid offensive coaching and a good offensive line. Cincinnati has neither in Offensive Coordinator Bob Bratkowski, or their mediocre line. Bratkowski should have been replaced years ago, but remains safe for unknown reasons. Right Tackle Andre Smith was supposed to shore up the latter problem, but he can't stay healthy. The Bengals would probably be better off getting a top flight offensive lineman as opposed to a QB, but this franchise is not known for sound decision making.

Hell, who knows. Maybe Jordan Palmer will be their starting QB next year.

NFC East Preview

Did I save the best for last? Maybe, as the NFC East is usually one of the best divisions in football. But we've caught two teams from this division in semi- "rebuild" mode and another in "win-now" mode. I can't believe that only the Dallas Cowboys actually look like true contenders in this division, but it's simply been shaken apart since last season. The Giants, especially defensively, have been on a slow decline since winning a Superbowl. The Eagles have handed the reigns to a new starting quarterback, and the Redskins are practically a fantasy football team, but not a particularly good one.

Division Winner: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is the only model of consistency in the division. Quarterback Tony Romo has steadily improved each season under head coach Wade Phillips. And even when his receivers aren't playing to their pay grade, an unknown always seems to pop up and pick up the slack (see: Miles Austin). They also have very good, although aging running backs and a well rounded defense. Coming off a playoff win last year, Dallas looks to compete with New Orleans and Minnesota for a top seed and playoff bye week. I think we'll see eleven wins out of them.

Division Runner-Up: Philadelphia Eagles

This was a tough choice, as each of these three teams have so many question marks, but ultimately Philly has the fewest. New starting quarterback Kevin Kolb did start two games in place of then-injured, now-traded Donovan McNabb and looked pretty good in the process. Plus Michael Vick is still their back-up, so quarterbacking might not truly be a big issue for this team. Plus they've got lot's of young talent at the other offensive skill positions. Their defense hasn't been quite the same since the death of their longtime defensive coordinator before the 2009 season began, but they're no slouches either. The offensive line is aging and somewhat suspect, but that shouldn't stop the Eagles from winning nine games.

Division Third Place: Washington Redskins

When in doubt, take last year's ranking and switch the bottom two teams. At least, that's what I've done in a few of these previews! But the 'Skins really should be much improved this year with a new and proven head coach in Mike Shanahan and trade acquisition Donovan McNabb. This is one of the oldest teams in the league, as they consistently trade away their draft picks for high profile, under-performing free agents like DT Albert Haynesworth. But McNabb is a difference maker, and for years in Philly succeeded with sub-par receiver talent. I sincerely doubt Washington will compete for a playoff spot, but seven wins doesn't seem improbable.

Division Basement: New York Giants

The Giants have really skidded since winning it all a few years ago. Although their wide receiver corps has actually improved greatly with well spent draft picks, the defense has slowly fallen apart. The team knows it too, having changed coordinators. But unless Perry Fewell can get a lot more out a once-fearsome defensive line now in a multi-year slump, New York simply won't be able compete in a tough division in the currently stronger conference. Eli Manning is a decent quarterback, but you can't quite expect this offense to score the twenty-eight points they'll likely need almost every game to win. This is another team I've put in the cellar that could surprise, but I'm predicting six wins and the end of Tom Coughlin's coaching career.

Week One NFL Observations

It's amazing how set in stone a team's fate seems after week one. Every team that won is playoff bound, and every team that loses is doomed to spend the season drifting further and further away from a playoff berth.

However, this instant optimism and pessimism are misleading. For example, the Chargers started each of the last two years with multiple game losing streaks and yet still made the playoffs. Meanwhile Dallas and Buffalo got out to fast starts last year, but neither ended up playing in January.

So rather than re-evaluate my playoff predictions every freaking week, I'm simply going to speak about trends and observations I see after each weekend of NFL football.

1. The Eagles might be as good as advertised. They destroyed the Panthers at home, a team that did not lose a regular season home game last year. If they have a weak spot, it's that McNabb suffered a broken rib in the shellacking. Vick is still suspended until week three, and Kevin Kolb isn't very good so the Eagles today signed free agent Jeff Garcia. The last time Garcia played for the Eagles he led them to a late season playoff berth, so with Vick in the mix too and McNabb not officially out even for next week, I imagine they'll overcome the setback.

2. The Broncos suck, but the Bengals suck more. At least for now. Clearly a defense that can hold a supposedly offensive minded team to 6 points (plus another total fluke touchdown in the last minute) should win the game. If the Bengals offense can find a rhythm and start scoring some points they could actually turn it around. Meanwhile, if Denver beats Cleveland at home next week (which they easily could), do not expect much more. I still believe this is a clunker team, coming off a win that may also be a clunker team, about to play a team that is definitely a clunker team.

3. Dallas faithful shouldn't start looking toward January yet. They beat Tampa Bay, almost certainly a league bottom-dweller this year. They play the Giants next week, which will be a much, much better test.

4. The bay area can suddenly play football again. San Francisco beating Arizona, in consideration with their strong finish last season after Mike Singletary took over, is strong evidence of a team rounding the corner. Too early to say if they'll compete for a division title, but don't be surprised. Oakland, although losing to San Diego, at least looked good for the first time in recent memory. JaMarcus Russell looked sharper than last season, one of the rookie receivers played decently enough, and the running game was quite formidable. They will likely steal some games from elite teams.

5. Adrian Peterson is amazing. Favre wasn't great, but he didn't make any major mistakes and the Vikings did win the game.

6. Either the Saints are really good this year (especially their offense), or the Lions are still terrible. Likely a combination of the two. I still think the Lions will win at least one game this season, but why not extend the streak for a little while first?

Until next week, or until Ochocinco does something crazy.