Let the Speculation Commence - AFC West Preview

I've already half- (but only half!) jokingly picked the Bengals as 2010 NFL champions. But since this part of the NFL calendar is exceptionally slow, I've decided to go ahead and start division by division previews. For no particular reason, I'm starting in the AFC West.

Last year the Broncos unexpectedly pulled to the front of the division with a 6-0 start. They more or less proved that streak to be a fluke when they won only two games the entire rest of the season. The Chargers have held the AFC West for several years now, with the last Division champion being a very different Broncos team in 2005. And with Kansas City in the middle (or possibly even beginning) of what looks to be a lengthy rebuilding project and the Oakland Raiders still being owned by "Count" Al Davis, it will be an uphill climb for anyone to unseat San Diego.

Division Winner: San Diego Chargers

Unless quarterback Phillip Rivers goes down, the Chargers will win the AFC West for a fifth straight year. They have arguably been on a slow decline since their stunning 14-2 2006 season, but not nearly slow enough for the rest of the weak division to catch up. Their defense might not be elite, but when the offense routinely scores thirty points per game it doesn't need to be. They took a running back in the first round as their projected starter, and he'll be put in a good situation. Ten wins should be enough to take the division, but I wouldn't be surprised if they hit eleven or twelve.

Division Runner-Up: Oakland Raiders

I'm not sure any team in football has done more to improve their roster this offseason than Oakland. And a big chunk of that improvement was just giving up on former first overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell. Replacing that quarterback will be former Redskins starter Jason Campbell, who unlike Russell has actually proved why people keep saying he has potential. I think the move will benefit both the franchise and Campbell and the Raiders may actually prove competitive this year. A wild-card berth still seems pretty unlikely though; Raiders fans should be happy to hit seven or eight wins.

Division Third Place: Denver Broncos

I still don't believe Josh McDaniels is a good head coach. After he somehow pulled together an excellent first half-season with somewhat mediocre talent last year, the team tanked big time to end the season. And then they drafted Tim Tebow - in the first round. Tebow will probably take several years to develop, if indeed he ever does and with a team that proved somehow able to win now, why not let Kyle Orton continue quarterbacking and get a player that can come in a contribute right away. Had the Broncos approached their draft and free agency differently I easily could have placed them second making a run at first. Instead I expect about six or seven wins.

Division Basement: Kansas City Chiefs

This team wisely has a serious youth movement going on. No one thought the shell of the once mighty early aughts Chiefs team was going anywhere fast, so they surrounded their young quarterback with young talent to develop. It will take a few more years for Kansas City to make any real noise, but they're probably only a season or two away from getting out of the division cellar. If the Browns managed to win five games last year, the Chiefs should be able to replicate the feat in 2010.

2011 NFL Gambling Guide

What is the steal of the 2010 Gambling season?

Bodog Sports, a Vegas sports gambling outlet, is giving the Cincinnati Bengals 30/1 odds of winning the next Superbowl!  Can you even imagine the payoff when the Bengals cross the NFL finish line in first place.  Guys, you could turn $100 into $3,000 or $100,000 into $3,000,000.

Take it from me, and my surprisingly slightly-more-than-half right 2009 NFL predictions.  Let's review!

First I picked the playoff teams for the AFC teams.  And oh boy did I nail four of the six playoff teams!  I missed the Colts as the top seed - I thought the loss of Tony Dungy and some of the rest of their coaching staff might actually disrupt the continuity Peyton Manning has enjoyed since coming into the league.  My theory finally paid off when the Colts lost the Superbowl . . .

I thought the Titans would would have a great in place of the Colts.  And they did, but only after losing the first 6 games and replacing their starting quarterback.  I feel I should get a mulligan on that one.  Same with the Texans, one of my wildcard picks, who came damn to close to the post season.  They posted the same record as the 5th seed Ravens and 6th seed Jets, but lost in tiebreakers.

So let's talk about the Ravens.  I totally had both them and the Bengals in postseason, but I flip-flopped the division winner and wildcard team.  Being only a game off, I feel pretty justified here.

Lastly, I had the Chargers and Patriots winning their divisions.  Like everyone else.

I did nearly as well in the NFC playoff predictions.  The Vikings unsurprisingly cruised to a second straight division title.  I expected the Bears to best the Packers for a wildcard spot, but I failed to realize how poor Chicago's coaches were.  And now they're mostly fired.

I picked the Eagles for a much better season than they had, but the did make the playoffs.  I'm still not sure how the Cowboys managed to be a playoff team and beat Philadelphia three times in one season.

Elsewhere I picked the 49ers and Panthers for big seasons.  Although neither did horrendously, they did miss the playoffs.  At least San Francisco kept the NFC-West interesting.

Most happily of all though, I had the Saints making the playoffs and going on a long postseason run from the beginning.  Geaux Saints!

So take it from me gambling aficionados.  A guy who's right 58% of the time

Oh damn, there's some football games tomorrow

After about 10:00 pm tomorrow we'll know who's playing in the Superbowl!

In the first fight we've got Payton Manning & the 16-2 Colts hosting the surging 11-7 Jets. Now, the Jets have the league's best defense and some pretty damn good running backs. But the Colts have Manning at quarterback and the Jets have the mistake-prone rookie Mark Sanchez.

The Jets surprised many by beating the Chargers last round, but the Colts are just too good this year. For all the talk about the Jets' confidence after taking down the Chargers, the Colts are probably feeling pretty good after destroying the Ravens, who themselves took out Indy's arch-rival Patriots in the Wild-Card round. I think the Colts will be headed back to the Superbowl for the second time in 5 years with relative ease.

Now for the main event - the NFC Championship Game. For most of the season, the Vikings and Saints clearly stood out as this conference's best teams, and in their Divisional Round games they certainly looked the part - beating the Cowboys and Cardinals by 31 points each. I shudder to even predict the winner of this game, but with a gun to my head I suppose I would pick the Saints to advance to the franchise's first Superbowl.

Too bad the Bengals couldn't crash the party too.

Playoff Stretch Preview

I meant to post this before this weekend's crop of games, but oh well:

That's right folks. It's time to start talking about the NFL playoff picture. I've drawn up a neat little chart of how I think the post season will shake down, right up to the Saints-Bengals superbowl!
Seeding is really important to any sports postseason, and the NFL is no exception. I see the current top seeds of both conferences staying put. It's very hard to imagine the undefeated Saints and Colts not capturing the top spots. A one-loss Vikings team looks to have a lock on the second spot in the NFC, while a 7-2 Bengals should coast through the remaining easy schedule to nail down the number two spot in the AFC. Even after an unexpected Raiders loss, I still think the Bengals will win nearly all of their remaining games. These four teams will be rewarded with a first round bye.

In the AFC East, it's pretty clear that the Patriots will run away with the division. The race was even in the AFC West, but the Broncos are on a serious decline after an unthinkable 6-0 start, and the Chargers have slowly but surely gained momentum and taken control of the division.

The wild card spots are quite interesting in the AFC, however, with at least 5 teams in hot contention for the last two playoff spots. I've kept the Ravens and Steelers out of the playoff picture because they have two meetings left this season. So they'll probably beat each other out of the race, while a "little-engine-that-could" Dolphins team that has lost three of its starters but has gotten better, and a pretty good Texans team will sneak in. The Broncos and possibly the Jaguars will join the Steelers and Ravens as teams just barely missing the post-season in the AFC.

In the NFC, the Cardinals have practically already won the West notwithstanding an extreme last season comeback by the initially dominant 49ers. The East is usually the Division to beat in the NFC, but this year the top three teams look wobbly. I see Philly bouncing back to win the division, the Cowboys season crashing late, and the Giants reemerging with a late season playoff berth in the 6th spot. The Falcons possibly have the easiest path to a wildcard in the NFC, and I think they'll get the 5th spot over the Giants.

Outside of the Bengals and Saints taking it all the way to the Superbowl, the Chargers will win a few January games, as will the Eagles. The only other wins I forecast are divisional round victories by the Patriots and Giants.

So there you have it, Dank-Game.

Until this looks ridiculous in 3 weeks and I redo it.

Bengals win!

The Bengals went 2-1 Sunday, their best record after 3 games since 2006. The bigger news however is that they beat the fucking Steelers!

This win at home (which is sometimes jokingly referred to as Heinz Field West because there are always so many goddamn Steelers fans in attendance) broke a number of streaks the Steelers had going against the Bengals. More importantly, it keeps Cincinnati in 2nd place in the AFC-North and moves the Steelers down to third.

As this was the first of three straight divisional games, it was critical to win this. Now Cincinnati has a chance both of the next two weeks to pull into first in the division. They had a chance this week, but nobody really thought the Browns would take down Baltimore (and it wasn't even close).

So next week Cincinnati heads to Cleveland who managed all of three point against the Ravens. Now that the Lions ended their historic losing streak, you can bet the Browns will find their way to the bottom of many pundits weekly "power-rankings," challenged only by the Rams and the Buccaneers. So if the Bengals lose this game I won't even know what to say. Assuming a win, Cincinnati would have a 2-0 divisional record. Looking at the rest the AFC-North next week, Baltimore heads to New England and Pittsburgh plays prime-time host to the San Diego Chargers.

Baltimore looks very, very convincing on both sides of the ball this season, and if they are the best team in the AFC, as many pundits have suggested, there is not a better place than Foxborough, Massachusetts to test the notion. Although the Patriots look more beatable than they have in years, this should be a long, close game that the Ravens could easily lose.

In Pittsburgh, the Steelers will have their hands full with a very talented Chargers team. Although Pittsburgh's defense is still very good, San Diego was able to put up 26 points on an excellent Ravens defense in a close loss. If the Chargers can get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, or force turnovers, they will win this game.

So this means that Cincinnati escaping next week with the only win in our division is a strong possibility, moving the Bengals into first outright, as the Ravens will only have a 1-0 divisional record. Of course, this is somewhat of a moot point, as even if the Bengals are 3-1 and first in the division outright, they still play in Baltimore the next week. So either way, this game will be played for the top spot in the division (unless the Bengals go down to Cleveland and Baltimore beats the Patriots, and I refuse to even imagine this possibility).

Still, I think a week 4 loss by the Ravens coupled with a win by the Bengals would give Cincinnati all the momentum they need leading up to their date in Baltimore. And assuming the Bengals go 3-0 in their division for the first half of the season, I think the sky becomes the limit for a time most wrote off after week one.

Maybe for once the Bengals really are on the rise. And if they do drop off the face of the planet in the weeks to come, at least the Bearcats look awesome. Football is suddenly interesting again in Cincinnati.

Go Bengals!

NFL 2009 preview - AFC

Just what you need. Another season preview!

I have to post these now, a week before the regular season begins, so we can either look back at how much of a genius I was, or (more likely) make fun of me for wasting my time with a ridiculously incorrect outlook. To that end, I will predict the playoff teams, but not actual playoff results. I'll do that come January, so in February we can either praise me as a football-savant, or (more likely) make fun of me!

So let's begin:

West

This is as good a place to start as any. The Chargers have locked up this division for several straight years, and given how bad the Raiders and Chiefs have been for a while, the Chargers are virtual locks to repeat. Denver was within one game of winning the division last year, but a late season meltdown (and that's being kind) and a rookie head coach have led to a disastrous offseason. They lost their Pro Bowl quarterback and will probably lose their leading receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos were the worst team in football this year. Yes, worse than the Lions.

I have the Raiders in second, largely because they will win games in a weak division and have the talent to take a few surprise games here and there. The new regime in Kansas City is more promising than in Denver, but the turnaround is very unlikely to happen quickly.

South

This is a tough division to predict. For years it has been dominated by the Colts until the Titans burst through with the best record in football. The Jaguars were pegged as the hot team last season, but collapsed almost immediately after a solid postseason to tend their 2007 campaign. The Texans keep going 8-8.

While I don't think the Titans will have the best record in football again, and although they lost star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth, I think they still have the pieces in place to repeat a division crown. I think Houston is poised for a decent year, and are possible rising stars. A wild card berth seems possible. I'm sure I'll regret this prediction, but this will be the first year the Colts don't go to the playoffs in a long time, although they may still post a 9-7 record. I find it unlikely that Jacksonville can find their stride in such a tough division.

North

Yeah that's right. I put the defending Superbowl champs at third in their own division. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a ton last year, and their relatively poor offensive line wasn't fortified with any notable free agents or draft picks. It seems likely he could go down this season. The Ravens will meanwhile continue to have a serviceable offense while maintaining a top notch defense, despite losing Terrel Suggs.

Cincinnati appears on the rise after a solid offseason. If Carson Palmer stays healthy a wild card berth seems within reach so long as they can win divisional games. The Browns will be one of the bottom three teams in football. Not only is their new coach, Eric Mangini, not a very good coach, but he is stepping into one of the worst rosters in football. Ten days out from the start of his season and he hasn't named a starting quarterback!

East

It's almost impossible to imagine the Patriots not winning this division. Without Tom Brady last season they still hit 11-5, and if it weren't for a tie-breaker with the even-record Dolphins they would have won the division. It is doubtful that they'll have another perfect regular season, but on paper this team is just as good. Meanwhile, Miami will take a step backward, probably ending the season around .500.

Elsewhere, the Jets are in rebuilding mode, and will probably have a long season ahead of them. Buffalo I think could be an exciting team, and while I don't neccesarily think that they'll be playoff contenders, I do think end the season with a winning record.

Playoff Picture