Optimism?

OK, let's admit it. The Bengals blew it.

After starting the season with more momentum than anyone expected, the team basically disappeared at the end of the year. This trend continued into the playoffs, although their final effort (minus Shayne Graham at least) wasn't completely embarrassing.

But when you look at the overall picture, you see a young team with a few serious weak points. And these things can now be addressed seriously without worrying about losing any major players.

We certainly don't need to lose sleep over Cincinnati's running back stable, linebacker corps, or starting defensive backs.

Unless the speculation that Carson's elbow is indeed still damaged from last season's injury, we shouldn't have to worry about quarterbacks either - and even if he is hurt, he has another offseason to recuperate. We could probably get a better back up, but this isn't critical.

I figure there are three main areas to improve, and another three that could use tweaking. The most important is wide receiver. Chad Ochocinco (I have a strong feeling that last name will be changing again soon) is still solid, but probably not the elite guy he was from about 2003-2007. I figure to see two more good seasons out of him. After that, the Bengals have close to nothing. Andre Calwell shows flashes and is probably a good third option, but maybe not starter material. Coles isn't close to being worth the money we'll owe him, and I expect him to get cut. Anyone else is just a footnote so far.

There's a chance that both Anquan Boldin of the Cardinals and Joshua Cribbs of the Browns will be available this offseason. The Bengals need to aggressively pursue these guys, or any other type of number two wide receiver that becomes available. The Bengals haven't done a good job of developing young WRs in recent years (see: Jerome Simpson - 2nd round pick, 1 reception in 2 seasons), and we need someone who can step up right away - like Coles was supposed to this year.

The next most pressing need is nickle cornerback. Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall did as good a job as any team should need shutting down the number one and two WRs as any defense should need, but the slot guy made the Bengals pay time and time again. With the risk of losing one of them to free agency in the next few years, having a young guy to develop wouldn't be a bad thing.

Defensive line is also worrying, as it seems injury prone. Antwan Odom and Pat Sims both ended their seasons early. Domata Peko and Robert Geathers both missed games to injury. Tank Johnson seemed to end up on the injury report every other week. This unit frequently didn't generate the kind of pressure it needed to late in the season. This is supposedly a D-line heavy draft, and then Bengals should pounce on one of these guys as early as round one, depending of course on who's available.

First on my list of secondary issues is tight end. The big question marks here are who will be back and what kind of offensive scheme Cincinnati will run next year. If they're looking for more of a pass catching tight end, maybe last year's pick, Chase Coffman will be up to NFL speed. Although not signed for next season, it seems likely the Bengals could bring Reggie Kelly back. I expect J.P. Foschi to be back, but probably not Dan Coats.

Safety is a position where the Bengals defense could improve. They've got pretty good starters in Roy Williams, Ndukwe and Chris Crocker, but if their is an outstanding rookie safety available, I have to think they'll got after him.

Last I have offensive line. This unit probably over-performed this season, and if the right guy is available in the draft Cincinnati should take him. The current offensive line is good, but it does stand room for improvement in pass protecting. Hopefully the further development of Andre Smith leads to this need diminishing.

So, I figure the Bengals draft will look something like this:

Round 1 - Defensive Tackle or End
Round 2 - Cornerback
Round 3 - Safety
Round 4 - Offensive Lineman
Round 5 - Wide Receiver
Round 6 - Tight End
Round 7 - Kicker

It will be interesting to see if I get any of these right